with the current weather, as warm or even cold the original hot property market is currently the subject of Shenzhen.

Shenzhen, the largest local real estate market intermediary World Chinese Research Center for the latest release of an analytical report, in December 2007, Shenzhen, second-hand housing market is still in the doldrums, trading volume, closing price continued to decline, ushering in the lowest point in the second half. According to the city’s land department’s statistics, in December last year, the city’s total 3966 turnover of secondary residential units, the Central than the 12.1 percent decline in turnover area of 365,900 square meters, 10.3 percent decrease.

Under these circumstances, so that “private investment in Shenzhen originator speculation,” said Zou of the public are also concerned about. “Everyone is still a ‘turning point’ argument, and now will probably be discussed or how many, fell when they could stop. “Recently, the” Business News “interview, the people said Zou.

“the market is too dangerous”

“God tell you to death, we must first let you crazy. “Even people in Zou, the 2007 first half of the Shenzhen property market has also been a” mad. “

that time talking about the property market, Zou people “lingering fear”, “market everywhere waving money to buy flats, buyers were in all likelihood investors, while investors The next home is also the main investors. “

Zou people with words, at the time for self-occupation-based clients is” panic “buy, investment-based client is” crazy “in buying the whole market has been” irrational, “the.

World Chinese real estate transaction statistics show that during the first half of the hot real estate market in Shenzhen, the investment proportion of the total purchase volume八成. First-hand residential data also showed that the majority of buyers are investors. A conservative estimate, the first half of the primary residential market, the overall investment ratio exceeds 50 percent, some real estate investment ratio can be achieved even more than 80%.

“under such a market is definitely very dangerous. I told myself just to sell, not buy, are determined not to buy. “Zou unusually strong public at the time their own judgments, he said that in accordance with the purchasing power of the market is estimated that in his most concentrated investment as well as investment climate was the most heavily Nanshan District,” each have a set of house price High (Composition) . “

Nanshan District, he cited the” window of Coastal “and” Nanshan Rose Garden “as an example. The former in 2004 when 5,000 yuan / sq m to sell out, a earn a 20,000 ~ 3 million, “are not sell. “and that by 2007,”炒到of 22,000 ~ 23,000 / sq m, many people are still reluctant to sell. “the latter even more outrageous, and the first 6,000 yuan / square meters of real estate, and finally even炒到30,000 yuan / square meter.

“the market is too dangerous. “Zou public word.

the second half of the boom receded, the real market has emerged. In the above two statistics, the investment to buy all of a sudden dropped to turnover ratio of only about 10%.

“real estate speculation into a landlord”

2007 in the second half, and the situation was verified Zou people to judge, the property market came to a standstill. The entire “11″ Golden Week seven days, once powerful real estate market in Shenzhen has a turnover of only 82 sets.

Shenzhen Centaline Property monthly transaction data show that began in June last year, the volume on a monthly basis on new homes fell. Housing sales also declined from month to month, from June’s 560,000 square meters, down to the December of 170,000 square meters.

second-hand housing turnover is down dramatically. United World Chinese Commercial real estate in 2007, 8 ~ 10 months of second-hand residential turnover dropped, ring than the 26.3 percent drop, respectively, 43% and 36.8%; turnover cycle of songs of the ring than the 24.8 percent drop, respectively, 45.2% and 36.8%. The lowest in October, only 4252 sets of transactions, which is less than the highest one-fourth of the month.

“Most people were miserable quilt. “Zou Jian-min, the volume decline, many funds were not very strong short-term investors have been put over all of a sudden can not get away. It is really a phrase joke come true, “real estate speculation has become a landlord.” Prior to frequently-control policies introduced by the property market, but also have begun to demonstrate the power.

retrospect, in the past in 2007, the central bank raise interest rates six times, more than 5 years lending rate rose to 7.83 percent, and the pressure to continue raising interest rates. This has been a direct result of the repayment of loans investors put increasingly greater pressure on the increasingly tense capital chain, resulting in early repayment and off for the phenomenon.

Zou Min told reporters, the reality may be more than the figures reflected more serious. “Restricted loan under an atmosphere of credit crunch, as banks are generally lower than the price evaluation system实际成交价grid, in fact, a lot of high real estate investment climate, the first payment has to reach around the到五成. “This is undoubtedly the hands of investors have become extremely difficult to sell the property, the investment cost has been greatly improved.

“We look at investment income ratio, Shenzhen has many properties that can be clearly beyond the scope of investment has been no investment value. “Zou people, for example, in Shenzhen, a house worth one million yuan, the rent is probably more than 2000 yuan / month, so if people have bought, it is necessary to the bank more than 6000 yuan / month.

“Shenzhen’s property prices are already significantly exceeded everyone’s income level. “In Zou public opinion,” Shenzhen housing prices dropped only 50 percent, we will it be possible to buy a house - that is the reasonable price of investment. “

” inflection point “coming?

Zou, a public awareness investors, the bank borrowed two million yuan to buy a house, which now houses only 150 million, “has become a negative asset of. “According to him, there are some investors specialized in Shenzhen came from other places,” to buy two sets of luxury, according to the current market price, basically the end of the first paragraph is the deficit. “

” in particular, 6,7 month, the most crazy, many intermediaries salesman can not help themselves in.. “According to Zou people that he contacted a lot of sales are involved in the final of” speculation “, and then fitted with a lot of people there.

sharp reversal of the property market will soon bring more problems, such as an intermediary company to close the incident. By the end of October last year, Mr Michael investors and 2.27 million yuan three friends put together as a down payment, and bought in Shenzhen Bagualing single layer of the whole apartment, with an area of 825 square meters. Pay nearly a month later, they found that the funds had not yet arrived in the hands of the seller. 1.1 million yuan of which is zoned to the long process of real estate intermediary company accounts, another 1.06 million yuan to the long process of real estate zoned Paper Kam Chau, general manager of the personal accounts. They then find a long process of real estate companies, which admitted the facts and promise before the November 30 shall refund the purchase. However, by early December, the long river of real estate into a “collapse of storm”, it shall purchase 2,270,000 yuan issue, “until now is still not resolved. “

In addition, more well-known is the transit home overnight collapse, President蒋飞tens of millions of dollars suspected of absconding卷款incident. Subsequently,创辉rental in Shanghai also closed down several stores, real estate intermediary industry seems “哀鸿遍野”, Wang and other industry giants have joined the so-called “inflection point” Controversy.

“inflection point” has been the arrival of the short term is still a matter of debate. United World Chinese Commercial Real Estate recently released “in January 2008 analysis of buyers and sellers of mind,” pointed out that some short-term small investors endured several months of falling house prices, at present, the will of a very strong hand. Analysis, on the one hand, the low rate of return is the rent, not for the arrival, on the other hand, the rental market is currently the source of the emergence of a large number of disk, and even the stability of the lease can not guarantee, which stimulated the investors sell the wishes as soon as possible.

no matter what, the Shenzhen property market is no longer as in the past has been the rapid rise is an indisputable fact, which also can be a reasonable change. After all, a rational and healthy market, whether to investors or the economy as a whole operation is very important.

Chinese version:深圳炒房调查：每平米6000楼盘被炒到每平3万

跟眼下的天气一样，阴冷是原本温暖甚至火热的深圳楼市目前的主题。

深圳本土{zd0}的中介世华地产市场研究中心{zx1}发布的一份分析报告指出，2007年12月，深圳二手住宅市场依旧低迷，成交量、成交均价继续下滑，迎来了下半年的{zd1}点。根据该市国土部门的统计，去年12月全市共成交二手住宅3966套，环比下降12.1%，成交面积36.59万平方米，环比下降10.3%。

此情此景，令有“深圳民间投资炒楼鼻祖”之称的邹建民亦感担忧。“大家还在为‘拐点’争论，现在应该讨论大概会跌多少，跌到什么时候才能止住。”近日接受《{dy}财经日报》采访时，邹建民说。

“这个市场太危险”

“上帝叫你死亡，必先让你疯狂。”即使在邹建民看来，2007年上半年的深圳楼市也已经是“疯掉了”。

讲起那个时候的楼市，邹建民“心有余悸”，“市场上到处都是挥着钞票要买楼的人，买者当中十有八九是投资客，而投资客的下家也主要是投资客。”

用邹建民的话来说，当时自住型的客户是“恐慌性”买入，投资型的客户是“疯狂性”买入，整个市场已经“失去理性”了。

世华地产的交易统计数据显示，上半年深圳房地产市场火爆的时候，投资性购房比例约占总成交量的八成。一手住宅的数据同样显示，买家多数是投资客。保守估计，上半年一手住宅市场整体投资比例超过50%，部分楼盘投资比例甚至可达到80%以上。

“这种行情之下，肯定很危险。我告诉自己只卖出，不买进，坚决不买入。”邹建民异常坚定当时自己的判断，他说按照市场的购买力估计，在他投资最为集中、也是当时投资气氛最为浓厚的南山片区，“每一套房子的价格都有虚高(成分)。”

他列举了南山区的“滨海之窗”和“南山玫瑰园”为例。前者在2004年的时候，5000元/平方米往外卖，一套只赚个2万～3万元，“都卖不掉。”而到了2007年，“炒到了2.2万～2.3万/平方米，好多人都还不愿意卖。”后者更加离谱，{zx0}6000元/平方米的楼盘，{zh1}竟然炒到3万元/平方米。

“这个市场太危险。”邹建民一言以蔽之。

而下半年热潮退去之后，真实的市场显现出来了。在上述两项统计当中，投资性购买一下子下降到了只占成交比例的10%左右。

“炒房炒成房东”

2007年下半年，形势果然验证了邹建民的判断，楼市急转直下。整个“十一”黄金周七天之内，曾经威力无穷的深圳房地产市场竟然只有82套的成交量。

深圳中原地产的月度交易数据显示，去年6月开始，各月新房成交量就逐月下降。住房销售面积也是逐月下降，从6月份的56万平方米，下降到了12月份的17万平方米。

二手房成交量的下滑更是厉害。世华地产在2007年8～10月间的二手住宅成交量大幅下挫，环比降幅分别为26.3%、43%和36.8%；成交套数的环比降幅分别为24.8%、45.2%和36.8%。{zd1}的10月份成交只有4252套，不及{zg}月份的四分之一。

“大部分人被套得很惨。”邹建民介绍，成交量的下滑，使得许多资金不很雄厚的短线投资客一下子被套住，无法脱身。这真应验了那句玩笑话，“炒房炒成了房东”。而此前频频出台的楼市调控政策，也已开始彰显威力。

回头来看，在刚刚过去的2007年，央行六次加息，5年以上xx利率上升到了7.83%，并且有继续加息的压力。这直接导致已xx投资者们的还款压力越来越大，资金链日益绷紧，产生了提前还贷和断供的现象。

邹建民告诉记者，现实可能比数字上体现的还要严重。“限贷惜贷的气氛之下，由于银行评估系统价格普遍低于实际成交价格，实际上，很多投资气氛高的楼盘，首付款已经要达到五成左右了。”这无疑让投资客手中的物业变得极难出售，投资的成本已经大大提高了。

“我们来看投资、收益比，深圳的许多楼盘已经明显超出了可投资范围，已经没有投资价值了。”邹建民举例说，在深圳，一套价值100万元的房子，租金大概是2000多元/月，如果买的话，就要给银行6000多元/月。

“现在深圳的楼价，已经明显超出了大家的收入水平。”在邹建民看来，“深圳房价只有下降50%，大家才有可能买得起房子——那才是合理的投资价位。”

“拐点”到来？

邹建民认识的一位投资者，向银行借了200万元买房，而房子现在只值150万元，“已经是负资产了。”据他介绍，有一些投资客专门从其他地方赶来深圳，“买了两套豪宅，按照现在的市价，基本上首期款是亏完了。”

“特别是6、7月份，最疯狂的时候，很多中介业务员忍不住，自己也进去了。”据邹建民称，他接触的很多业务员{zh1}都参与“炒楼”，接着就有很多人被套。

楼市急转很快带来更多的问题，比如中介公司关门事件。去年10月底，投资客秋先生和三个朋友凑齐227万元作为首付款，买下了位于深圳八卦岭的整整一层单身公寓，面积825平方米。交钱近一个月后，他们发现资金竟然还没有到达卖家手中。其中的110万元划到了中介长河地产的公司账户上，另外106万元划到了长河地产总经理皮锦洲的个人账户上。随后他们找到长河地产公司，后者承认了这一事实，并且承诺在11月30日之前退还购房款。但到了12月初，长河地产陷入“倒闭风波”，那227万元购房款的问题，“到现在还没有解决。”

除此之外，更广为人知的便是中天置业一夜倒闭、总裁蒋飞涉嫌卷款数千万元潜逃事件。随后，创辉租售在上海的多家门店也关门大吉，房产中介业似乎“哀鸿遍野”，王石等业界巨头纷纷加入了所谓“拐点”论争。

“拐点”是否已经到来，短期内还是个见仁见智的问题。近日世华地产发布的《2008年1月买卖双方心态分析》指出，部分短期小型投资客经受了数月的房价下跌后，目前出手意愿非常强烈。分析称，一方面是租金回报率低、不能抵供，另一方面是目前租赁市场涌现大量盘源，连稳定的租赁都无法保障，这刺激了投资客尽快脱手的意愿。

不管如何，深圳楼市不再像以前那样飞速上涨已是不争的事实，而这也堪称一个合理的改变。毕竟，一个理性、健康的市场，无论对投资者还是整个经济运行，都是十分重要的。

2008-02-01