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本帖{zh1}由 code 于 2010-4-14 20:24 编辑
Base metals
基本金属
Spring season
春季大涨价
What is pushing up the price of copper and other base metals?
是什么在推高铜和其他基本金属的价格？
Apr 8th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
AS WELL as being close to each other on the periodic table, copper, nickel and zinc share several traits. Like other commodities such as oil and gold, the prices of all three are soaring again after a crisis-induced collapse (see chart). In an astounding recovery, metals prices have almost doubled over the past year.
铜（29），镍（28），锌（30）在化学周期元素表中紧挨着彼此，并且它们还拥有一些相同的特性。如石油和黄金等其他商品，这三样的价格在危机引起的价格崩塌之后开始猛涨（看表）。在令人惊讶的复苏期，金属价格几乎是去年的2倍多。
Copper, used for electrical wiring and in construction, has had the most striking ascent. It briefly rose above $8,000 a tonne on April 6th, its highest level since August 2008 (and within shouting distance of its record of nearly $9,000, set in April that year). Nickel, mainly used to make stainless steel, has gained 32% since the start of 2010 and, at around $25,000 a tonne, is close to a two-year high. Zinc, lead, tin and aluminium have also run up smartly over the past year.
铜，应用于制造电线和建筑业，涨价最厉害。在4月6号它的价格迅速达到8,000美元一吨，这是自2008年8月以来的{zg}价格（距离2008年4月份创下的9,000美元一吨的{zg}价格记录也相差不远）。镍，主要应用于制造不锈钢，进入2010后价格已经涨了32%，大约在25,000美元一吨，接近于2年前的高价。锌、铅、锡和铝也都在去年中涨价不少。
Growing optimism about the world economy helps explain why prices are surging. News from developed economies has become sunnier. And metal-hungry China (it consumes a third of the world’s base metals) is expected to grow so fast that its metal demand could return to pre-crisis levels in a year or so.
对未来全球经济的乐观态度不断在增加，这解释了为什么价格在升高。来自发达经济体的消息也变得更令人欣慰。并且大家预测金属需求巨大的中国（它消耗全球三分之一的基本金属）会因迅速发展而使其金属需求在一年或者更少的时间内恢复到危机前水平。
Supply and demand is not the only thing helping keep prices aloft. There is an “extraordinary market” for copper that has departed from fundamentals, reckons Andrew Keen at HSBC. Growing copper inventories at metals-exchange warehouses (half a million tonnes or so by some estimates) have coincided with increasing prices. The same seems to be happening with aluminium, lead and nickel. In the past, prices have fallen as warehouse inventories have risen.
供给和需求并不是推高价格的{wy}因素。在HSBS的Andrew Keen认为现在与基本面相背离的是铜的“非常市场”。金属交易市场上不断增加的铜存货与其上升的价格保持一致。相同的现象估计也会发生在铝、铅和镍的身上。在过去，当库存增加时价格是下降的。
Some observers attribute this phenomenon to investors buying metals in the expectation that prices will rise further in 2011, when demand is forecast to outstrip supply. Yet prices may crumble if speculators suddenly get cold feet. A shift away from the low interest rates that have encouraged commodity investments could spark a change in sentiment. So might a rising dollar: commodity investments offer a hedge against a depressed greenback. Mining bosses acknowledge that prices may be more volatile as a result of such investment.
一些观察员将这一现象归于那些认为在2011年因需求超过供给使得价格将更高而去购买金属的投机者。但是如果投机突然大幅减少价格将会崩溃。从低息部门转移促使了商品投资，这会使大家改变投资信念。或者还会使美元升值：商品投资为对冲美元贬值提供了套期保值的方法。。矿场老板们认为这样的投资结果会使得价格更加不稳定。
Price rises in nickel, lead and zinc may slow in any case. The ores of all three metals are plentiful, so it is easy to expand production. Stainless steel can be milled without much nickel, although the end-product is harder and more expensive to work. Nickel restocking to replace inventories run down after the crisis will come to an end eventually. The momentum of copper, whose supply is harder to ramp up, looks more resilient. Copper mines need constant spending to maintain peak output. The collapse last year of investments in working mines will keep supply tight for a while yet.
无论无何镍、铅和锌涨价都会慢下来。这三种金属的矿藏很充足，所以扩大产能很容易。不锈钢可以不需要那么多镍来进行铸造，但是这样的产品会更难生产并且更贵。危机后最终镍的需求会减少，供给会有剩余。铜的供给很难增大，所以其价格增长势头很大。铜矿需要持续的投资来保持高产出。去年对开采中的矿场投资中断将会使供给紧张一断时间。
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