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据澳洲统计局(ABS)网站发布的“人口时钟”数据显示,每过一分钟十一秒澳洲的人口就增加一个,按照这个速度发展下去,到周四晚上,澳洲就可以迎来第2220万位公民。
  周四ABS也会发布新的人口季度报告,该报告将包含截止去年9月30日澳洲人口详细资料。或许报告会跟“人口时钟”有一两秒的误差,但不大可能会改变之前预测的截至去年6月30日的人口统计年度报告数据,该年度报告显示,澳洲人口正以2.1%的速度增长。
  上财年,澳洲总移民人数超过五十万人,净移民人数也达到28.53万人,所以很有可能第2220万位澳洲公民是坐飞机从外国来的,概率为2/3,而这位公民在澳洲大陆出生的概率为1/3,而他从偷渡船中走出的概率则微乎其微。
  货币政策的收紧及xx政府的经济刺激计划已经给经济需求及通胀,尤其是薪资造成了压力,而移民将把这一压力进一步恶化。
  随着技术工人短缺的再次出现,适当收紧预算的技术移民计划和457签证工人也不是长久之计。客籍工人和技术移民计划确实有利于相关领域和地区的经济增长,但同时也抑制了一些领域工作的在激烈竞争中本会增加的薪酬标准。人口增长了2.1%也会自动创造并提高商业需求。现在,只要有远见的明智的政治家和官僚制定出有效的政策,我们就能解决这些住房和交通问题,还有不断增长的人口问题。



The Australian Bureau of Statistics website features a “population clock” that ticks over with an extra Australian resident every one minute and eleven seconds. At that rate, we'll rack up our 22,200,000th resident on Thursday evening.

Thursday also sees the release of the latest ABS quarterly demographic report which will give detailed population numbers and breakdowns up to September 30. Potentially, it could alter the speed of the population clock by a second or two, but it would be a surprise if it showed much change to the June 30 annual population growth rate of 2.1 per cent.

For the last financial year, we managed gross migration of more than half a million people and net migration of 285,300. There's roughly two chances in three that our 22.2 millionth resident will arrive by plane, one chance in three that he or she will be get here by birth and a remote, statistically irrelevant possibility that the newcomer steps off a boat. And I might win Oz Lotto.

What the combination of the ABS stats and the population clock's round number might do though is focus a little attention on the unspoken third arm of official economic policy. Along with monetary (interest rates) and fiscal (government spending and taxing) policy, immigration has a major bearing on economic demand and inflationary forces, particularly wages pressure.

Thursday's figures will be the first of the current financial year and therefore should show just how serious the federal government was about immigration levels in framing the last budget – with the answer likely to be that it wasn't serious at all, just paying a little lip service to union grumbles back in May 2009 when we thought we were going into a recession.

And with our skills shortages starting to show again, it's just as well. The little tightening in the budget's skilled migrant program and section 457 guest-worker visas won't last long as the resources boom rolls on and our educational and social failings are exposed by effective “full” employment that features an unemployment rate that starts with a 4.

The guest worker and skilled migration schemes greatly benefit our economy by making growth possible in fields and geographies where we don't have the right people, but they also help keep a lid on wages that would otherwise be bid higher by competition for scarce resources. With hair dressers and chefs falling off the government's list of most desired occupations, the chances of higher wages for both those occupations increases.

That a population growing by 2.1 per cent automatically creates increased demand for business across the board doesn't go astray either.

Now, if only efficient and intelligent politicians and bureaucrats were a job category we could easily import, we might be able to tackle our failed housing and transport issues and handle that growing population.

Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor.
  • 积分 +4 谢谢奉献 2010-3-24 18:15
  • 积分 +3 感谢分享 2010-3-24 11:31