The oil industry
石油工业
Beyond the black stuff
远不止石油本身

Big Oil is being forced rethink its future
大石油公司被迫重新考虑它的未来Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist online

ON THE face of it the world’s big and publicly quoted oil companies should be celebrating some pleasing results this week. Royal Dutch Shell unveiled its results on Thursday February 4th, reporting that it had made $9.8 billion in 2009. Two days earlier BP boasted profits of $14 billion for the same year. Yet these billions are a disappointment compared with the bonanza of previous years (Shell, for example, raked in $31.4 billion in 2008 alone) when soaring oil prices pulled profits ever higher.
表面上看，世界上那些大型上市石油企业理应为本周一些喜人的消息好好庆祝一番。荷兰皇家壳牌公司于2月4号星期4披露了自己的财务报表，那就是它在2009年获利98亿美元。就在2天之前，英国石油公司还吹嘘了他们同年度盈利140亿美元的消息。然而，在之前几年中，猛增的油价带动了利润大幅增长(例如：壳牌公司单单在2008年一年中就迅速赚得了314亿美元），比起之前的大走鸿运，这区区的几十亿美元就显得微不足道了。

In the long term, however, the firms’ success depends on sustaining reserves. The big western oil companies are trying to expand through acquisitions and investment, but the opportunities do so are becoming scarcer. The firms are spending where they can. Exxon Mobil, the biggest listed oil company, says that exploration and capital spending hit $27.1 billion in 2009, 4% higher than in 2008. The company expects to spend $25 billion to $30 billion annually to the same end over the next five years. BP intends to spend some $20 billion this year on investment in new projects and drilling, roughly the same level as last year.
可是，从长远看来，这些企业的成功之道都取决于持续的储量。大型的西部石油公司想通过收购或者投资来扩大规模，但是可以这么做的机会变的越来越小。这些公司现在在任何他们可以做到的地方出资。埃克森美孚，作为世界上{zd0}的上市炼油公司，公布了在2009年，其考察与资金花费达到了271亿美元，比2008年高出4个百分点。美孚公司希望在未来的5年中，通过每年花费250-300亿美元来达到同样的效果。英国石油公司打算今年出资200亿美元用于新项目投资和钻井上，这基本和去年保持一致。

But there are limits to what money can buy. State-controlled rivals—in the Middle East, Russia and beyond—jealously guard oil reserves on their home patches. Few new big fields of oil, at least those that are easy to reach and cheap to exploit, have been discovered in recent years. And where new opportunities emerge, such as in Iraq, Western oil giants are scrambling to pay big sums at auctions for drilling rights in territory where the local government tightly limits their returns. Even then, competition from Chinese, Russian and other state-run oil firms can be severe. National oil companies will often pay prices that would alarm shareholders in the big listed oil companies
但是，单单有钱并不能买到一切。在中东存在着一些国家控制型对手，俄罗斯及其更远地方的国家也警觉的保护起他们自己领土上的石油储量。现在鲜有大型油田被发现，至少那些容易获得并可以廉价开采的地方已在近几年被挖掘一空。新的机遇出现了，例如在伊拉克，那些西部石油巨鳄们争抢着去付巨资以买到领土上的钻井权，尽管当地政府严格的限制了他们的回报。即使这样，他们同中国，俄罗斯以及其他一些国有石油公司之间的竞争也很激烈。国有石油公司将常常付出令大型上市石油公司的股东们错愕的巨资。

Thus Western firms are increasingly looking for different sorts of growth. One option is to deploy their expertise in the hunt for oil that is harder to reach, for example deep offshore, or to go for reserves such as tar sands that are trickier, and so much pricier, to refine.
事实上，西部（石油）公司正日益寻找可以增加效益的不同方法，一个选择就是施展他们在寻找石油发面的专业知识，找到那些更难开采到的石油。比如：去深海的大陆架海寻找储量。例如说焦油砂。但是其过程很棘手，精炼时需要的费用也更高。

Another route is to speed up the quest for other energy reserves. France’s Total has branched out into nuclear-power generation. This week Shell announced a $12 billion joint-venture with Cosan, a Brazilian producer of ethanol from sugar cane. This is something of a change of tack. Exxon and Shell are both spending money on “second generation” biofuels made from algae or waste materials, but these could take years to develop. Now Shell can sell Cosan’s “first generation” wares through it global distribution network.
另一个方法就是加快探索其他能源的储量，来自法国的total公司已经将业务拓展到核能发电上。这周，壳牌公司宣布了一个与科桑公司高达120亿的合资企业，后者是一个从甘蔗出提取乙醇的制造商。这具有改弦易辙的意义。美孚同壳牌同时出资购买“第二代”生物燃料，这些燃料是从水藻和废物中获得，但是它仍然需要很多年继续发展。如今：壳牌公司可以通过全球分销网络来出售科桑公司的“{dy}代”产品。

By far the biggest bet laid, however, has been on natural gas. Around 40% of Shell’s daily production is now in the form of gas. Total and BP are not far behind. Gas is increasingly important for power generation and heating and the global market is expected to grow by half by 2030. Big oil companies are keen to expand, calculating that their skills at managing huge capital projects will be useful when building gas-liquefaction plants that make the stuff readily transportable. Late last year Chevron, Shell and Exxon agreed to spend $37 billion to develop the Gorgon field off Australia, another potentially huge source of gas.
可是这却是一场关于天然气的巨赌。每天约有40%的壳牌产品是由天然气的形式供能。Total和英国石油公司也紧随其后。天然气对于发电和热能的地位都变得日益突出，到2030年，全世界天然气市场预计会上升50%。大型石油公司渴望扩大规模，估算好自己对控制大量资金项目的能力将对他们建设气体液化工厂有积极作用，工厂的存在使得天然气运输也更加容易。去年年末，雪弗龙，壳牌以及美孚公司同意出资370亿美元来发展在澳州大陆沿海的Gorgon油田，这也是天然气的另一个巨大潜在资源。

Nonetheless investors remain cautious because prices are volatile. Exxon’s shares fell in December when the firm bid $30 billion for XTO Energy, which gets its gas from “unconventional” shale beds. Gas prices have tumbled in the past couple of years as new projects, especially shale, came on stream just as the global recession lessened demand. And technological improvements have made the huge reserves of gas in America, from shale beds and the like, a commercial prospect. BP believes that these factors will keep gas prices weak for three or four years, but it could be longer. Though national oil companies have forced the Western oil giants to look farther afield for new reserves, the oil prices, unlike gas prices, are supported by the state-owned firms that make up OPEC.
尽管如此，由于价格波动的原因，投资者仍非常谨慎。由于12月美孚公司出价300亿美元收购克洛斯提柏能源公司，导致股价下跌，克洛斯提柏公司是从“非常规”的页岩床获取天然气。在过去的几年，作为新项目的天然气价格已经下跌，特别是在页岩开始有发展趋势之时，正好赶上了全球经济萧条，以至于天然气需求减少。技术改善使得美国从页岩床取得的庞大的天然气储备，有了一个商业性的前景。英国石油公司相信这些因素将导致接下来的3-4年或许更长的时间内，天然气的价格仍将维持很低的水准。虽然国有石油公司已迫使西方石油巨头寻找更新，更远的储备，石油不像天然气，油价被构成欧佩克组织的国有公司所支撑。

译者：nick_ren
如想与译者本人对该文进行切磋，请到如下链接：http://ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=30778