??????????????? Currently, the international shipping market continues to hot container ships, traffic surged, shrinking the container idle capacity. Meanwhile, second-hand boat buyers active inquiry more new ships, shipowners have shown signs of following orders. Experts believe that, despite all the uncertainty, but the international financial crisis remains in the doldrums since the custom-made container shipping market may be a turnaround in the coming months.
Shipping market continues to hot, idle capacity decreasing
??????????????? Since the beginning of this year, international container shipping market can be described as “full bloom”, the container trade rebound momentum. In the first quarter, the Asia-Europe container trade routes generally rose 22%. In addition, other trunk routes traffic generally rose. Meanwhile, the container ship lease rates rose slightly in the first quarter changed the momentum began to soar. Howe Robinson container ship chartering Index (HRCI) in the first quarter rose only 72 points, but the rise since April surge, June 16 to close at 596.5 points, higher than earlier this year, up 78%.?
?????????????????Affected by this positive catalysts, the number of global container idle is getting smaller. A French research institute, said the current worldwide capacity to 380,000 TEU were idle, only 2.8% of total capacity, while six months ago the figure was 12%. It is noteworthy that, in the idle less and less the premise of continued strong freight container ship. Meanwhile, the face of volume growth, shipping companies and not become dizzy and thawing all storage capacity, but tentative, partial thawing rhythmic capacity, thereby effectively stabilizing the tariff. In addition, owners of ships to slow down, delay the Vessel and other measures have also played a significant role in bringing fleet capacity growth under control, easing the pressure of excess capacity.
Signs have emerged under a single set increase the likelihood of ship
????????????????? Despite various uncertainties, market-based Ye 比较 fragile, but since the international financial crisis dismal container ship shipping market has shown strong signs of recovery, which makes almost zero risk of the monthly Dingdan container Dingzao market, there are orders coming months, greatly increasing the possibility of transactions.
????????????????? On the one hand, very few orders for new ship container. In addition, subject to extension of the Vessel, withdrawals, and changes and other factors alone, the global fleet of container holding the proportion of total orders declined significantly, while the new ships enter the market much faster than expected, which makes custom-made container owners the possibility of continued increase. On the other hand, the market has really had some boat owner signs an order set. “The current second-hand container ship vessel market trading activity, but also significantly increased new vessel inquiry. While turnover increased second-hand container ship, also resulted in prices.”
Experts believe that, in the future for a long period of Shi Jian Nei, container ship shipping markets are subject to the conditions and capacity Gongji Shijiejingji condition Yin Er Shi Chang on in the shipbuilding, large container ship orders Chengjiao unlikely feeder container ship orders for transactions the possibility of bigger. Number of key domestic shipbuilding enterprises have the ability to build these vessels should therefore be prepared to actively compete for orders.

翻译：

集装箱船订造隐现转机

当前，国际集装箱船航运市场持续火热，运量猛增，集装箱闲置运力不断减少。同时，二手船买家活跃，新船询价增多，显示出船东有下订单的苗头。专家分析认为，尽管存在各种的不确定性，但国际金融危机爆发以来持续低迷的集装箱船订造市场，未来几个月可能出现转机。

航运市场持续火爆，闲置运力不断减少

今年初以来，国际集装箱航运市场可谓“全面开花”，集装箱贸易出现反弹势头。一季度，亚欧航线集装箱贸易量普遍上涨22%。此外，其他主干航线运量普遍上涨。同时，集装箱船租赁费率一改一季度小幅上涨的态势，开始大幅飙升。豪罗宾逊集装箱船租船指数（HRCI）一季度仅上涨了72点，但4月以来涨幅剧增，6月16日收于596.5点，较今年初上涨了78%。

受此利好因素刺激，全球集装箱闲置数量正不断减少。法国一家研究机构称，目前全球有38万TEU的运力被闲置，仅为总运力的2.8%，而半年前这一数字为12%。值得注意的是，在闲置数量不断减少的前提下，集装箱船运费依然坚挺。同时，面对货量的增长，航运公司并没有头脑发热，解冻所有封存运力，而是尝试性，有节奏的分批解冻运力，从而有效的稳定了运价。另外，船东采取的船舶减速，延期接船等措施也发挥了明显作用，使船队运力增长速度得到控制，缓解了运力过剩的压力。

下单苗头已出现，订船可能性增加???

虽然存在各种不确定性，市场基础也比较脆弱，但自国际金融危机爆发后惨淡的集装箱船航运市场目前已表现出强劲的复苏势头，这使得危机以来每月订单几乎为零的集装箱订造市场，未来几个月有订单成交的可能性大大增加。

一方面，集装箱新船订单寥寥无几。此外受延期接船，撤单和改单等因素影响，全球集装箱手持订单占船队的比例明显下降，而新船进入市场的速度远低于预期，这使得船东订造集装箱的可能性不断增加。另一方面，市场也的确出现了一些船东下单订船的苗头。“目前二手船集装箱船市场买卖活跃，而且新船询价明显增多。同时二手集装箱船成交增加，也导致价格上扬。”

专家认为，在未来相当长的一段时间内，集装箱船航运市场主要受制于世界经济状况及运力供给状况，因而在造船市场上，超大型集装箱船订单成交的可能性不大，支线集装箱船订单成交的可能性要大一些。国内不少骨干造船企业都有能力建造这些船舶，因此应该作好准备，积极争抢订单。(中国船舶报2010年6月25日第47期)