Yuan Impact: Commodities & Metals
2010-06-25 01:51:13 阅读23 评论0 字号：大中小
China's decision to end the yuan's de facto peg against the dollar
could have a significant impact over time on the fortunes of
corporations big and small, Chinese and foreign-even though any movement
of the Chinese currency in the near term is likely to be too gradual to
matter immediately for the bottom line. Below is a look at how it
might affect companies in the commodities and metals sectors:
As the world's largest buyer of dollar-denominated commodities, China would benefit from a stronger yuan. Based on last year's numbers, an appreciation of about 3%, to 6.6 yuan per dollar, would have saved China roughly $2.8 billion on its iron ore and copper import bills-enough to buy about 35 million additional tons of iron ore, on top of the 628 million tons it imported in 2009.
'If there's a revaluation, from an import point of view, that's beneficial,' Luo Bingsheng, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, or CISA, said recently. He notes that China is also a growing importer of coking coal-which, like iron ore, is used to make steel.
That could have broader ripples, analyst say: Global commodity prices rallied steadily for more than a year after China raised its exchange rate in 2005, and commodity prices again rose sharply on June 21, the first trading day after the Chinese central bank's yuan announcement.
Still, the overall impact could be limited for big commodity importers like Rizhao Huaxin International Trade Co., which takes in about a million tons of iron ore a year, especially if appreciation is a gradual as most analysts expect. And any savings could also be offset by rises in price independent of the currency-iron ore spot prices have climbed 40% this year on strong demand, though prices have stabilized in the last two weeks and are expected to see some softening in the second half of 2010.
Nor would the impact be entirely one-sided. The vast majority of China's steel is used for domestic consumption-around 565 million tons last year. But it also exported 24.6 million tons of steel, and exports could suffer from a pricier Chinese currency. Steel-product exports have more than doubled in the first five months of this year.
Stainless steel exporters are especially vulnerable, as China is a large exporter of the product. 'Stainless steel consumption will be significantly affected,' says Jiang Xinfang, president director Shanghai Tsingshan Mineral Co., China's largest privately-owned stainless steel producer. But he says that a stronger yuan would also cut costs for raw materials used in stainless steel like nickel and chrome, which mostly come from overseas. 'Over the long run, consumption should be lifted due to lower production cost,' he said.
Another senior official with CISA said the day after the yuan announcement that 'appreciation will definitely affect the steel industry,' with makers of some products-like seamless pipe and silicon sheet steel-experiencing a particularly tough time since their prices are already more or less even with those of foreign rivals.
But overall, he said, 'China's steel industry can absorb the effect under the current circumstances.' He estimated that a 3% rise in the Chinese currency against the dollar would only erode about 10% to 15% of the gap between prices for Chinese steel products and the more expensive products made by competitors in the U.S. and in Europe. China's products are 'still much cheaper,' he said, noting also that international demand is currently quite healthy.
CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets says that some of the biggest beneficiaries of a stronger yuan in the metals industry would be foreign companies that will enjoy rising prices that result from a move but don't have any of their costs in yuan. The brokerage points to aluminum companies like Australia's Alumina, Russia's Rusal, and India's Hindalco Industries.
The impact of a pricier yuan on other kinds of commodities and agricultural imports, could be less significant than in minerals and metals.
A spokesman at Tyson Foods Inc. said the Springdale, Ark., meat company 'won't speculate on the impact' of a yuan rise. Tyson generated about $442 million of its fiscal 2009 sales, or 1.7%, from exports to China as well as from its operations there.
David Salmonsen, a trade specialist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, a farmer trade group in Washington, said the more expensive yuan 'would be helpful in making our exports more competitively priced, but if the Chinese currency adjusts also against other nations' currencies no one country may see an advantage for their exports.'
In soybeans, a gradual appreciation is unlikely to significantly raise imports because companies' production schedules are fixed to meet projected demand, so the exchange rate isn't likely to impact trade much in the near term, said a trader with Jiusan Oil and Fat Co., a large soybean importer.
'Soybean imports are not only decided by the exchange rate. Supply and demand as well as seasonal factors are more crucial,' said Hu Kai, an analyst with Dalu Futures Co.
Yue Li / Chuin-Wei Yap / Yajun Zhang / Tracy Zheng
中国为世界上以美元计价大宗商品的{zd0}买家，它将从人民币升值中获益。就拿去年的进口量来说，如果人民币兑美元升值3%左右，达到人民币6.6元兑1美 元，中国在铁矿石和铜的进口费用上就可节省28亿美元，这笔钱可以多购买大约3,500万吨铁矿石。中国2009年的铁矿石进口量为6.28亿吨。
中 国钢铁工业协会(CISA)常务副会长罗冰生最近说，从进口的角度讲，人民币汇率重估对中国是有益的。他指出，中国的焦炭进口量也在日益增加。焦炭是炼钢 的原料之一。
分析师们说，这有可能产生更广泛的连锁反应：在中国2005年上调人民币汇率后，全球大宗商品的价格稳步上涨了一年多，而在 6月21日，也就是中国央行宣布人民币汇率制度改革后的{dy}个交易日，大宗商品价格再度大幅上扬。
不过，目前受到影响的可能还只限于日照华信国际贸易有限公司(Rizhao Huaxin International Trade Co.)这样的大宗商品大型进口商，该公司每年的铁矿石进口量约为100万吨，如果人民币像大多数分析师预计的那样只是渐进升值，情况更是如此。而大宗商 品价格上涨也有可能将中国进口商因人民币升值而节省下的进口成本侵蚀掉。由于市场需求强劲，铁矿石现货价格今年已上涨了40%，不过这一价格过去两周已经 稳定下来，而且今年下半年预计还能略有下降。
人民币汇率制度改革的影响也不会是xx单 方面的。中国生产的钢主要供国内消费，中国去年消费了约5.56亿吨钢。但中国去年还出口了2,460万吨钢，人民币升值有可能打击中国的钢铁出口。今年 前五个月，中国的钢铁产品出口增长了一倍以上。
不锈钢出口商尤其容易受到打击，因为中国是不锈钢出口大国。中国{zd0}私营不锈钢生产商上海 青山矿产品有限公司的总经理江新芳说，不锈钢消费将受到重大影响。但他也表示，人民币升值会降低镍和铬等生产不锈钢所用原材料的采购成本，这些原料主要来 自海外。江新芳说，长期而言，生产成本降低将会提振消费。
中国钢铁工业协会的另一位高级官员在中国宣布人民币汇率改革的次日说，人民币升 值肯定会影响钢铁行业，无缝钢管和硅钢片等钢铁制品的生产商日子将尤其难过，因为他们的产品价格已或多或少与国外竞争对手持平。
但他也表 示，在目前环境下，中国钢铁行业总体上能够消化人民币升值的影响。他估计，如果人民币兑美元升值3%，中国钢铁产品和美欧国家钢铁产品间的价差只会缩窄 10%至15%左右，中国产品依然会便宜得多。他还指出，钢铁产品的国际需求状况目前十分良好。
里昂证券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)说，金属行业从人民币升值中获益{zd0}的公司包括一些外国企业，它们既能从产品价格的不断上涨中得益，又不存在任何人民币成本。里昂证券亚 太区市场说，澳大利亚的Alumina、俄罗斯的Rusal和印度的Hindalco Industries等铝业公司就属于这类企业。
与 矿产品和金属产品相比，人民币升值对其他大宗商品和农产品进口的影响可能不会那么大。
美国肉类企业泰森食品有限公司(Tyson Foods Inc.)的发言人说，公司不愿意对人民币升值的影响进行猜测。该公司2009财政年度对华出口及在华业务实现的收入为4.42亿美元，占公司当年销售收 入的1.7%。
美国农场主贸易组织美国农业社团联合会(American Farm Bureau Federation)的贸易专家萨默森(David Salmonsen)说，虽然人民币升值有助于提高美国出口农产品的价格竞争力，但如果人民币兑美元以外的其他货币也同样升值，则或许没有一个国家能在对 华农产品出口方面获得优势。
以大豆为例，大型大豆进口商九三油脂有限责任公司(Jiusan Oil and Fat Co.)的一位交易员称，人民币逐步升值不大可能提振大豆进口，因为企业是根据预期市场需求来确定生产计划的，因此汇率因素短期内不大可能给大豆进口带来 太大影响。
大陆期货(Dalu Futures Co.)的分析师胡凯（音）表示，大豆进口并不是仅仅由汇率因素决定的，供求情况以及季节性因素的作用更为关键。
Yue Li / Chuin-Wei Yap / Yajun Zhang / Tracy Zheng
As the world's largest buyer of dollar-denominated commodities, China would benefit from a stronger yuan. Based on last year's numbers, an appreciation of about 3%, to 6.6 yuan per dollar, would have saved China roughly $2.8 billion on its iron ore and copper import bills-enough to buy about 35 million additional tons of iron ore, on top of the 628 million tons it imported in 2009.
'If there's a revaluation, from an import point of view, that's beneficial,' Luo Bingsheng, vice chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, or CISA, said recently. He notes that China is also a growing importer of coking coal-which, like iron ore, is used to make steel.
That could have broader ripples, analyst say: Global commodity prices rallied steadily for more than a year after China raised its exchange rate in 2005, and commodity prices again rose sharply on June 21, the first trading day after the Chinese central bank's yuan announcement.
Still, the overall impact could be limited for big commodity importers like Rizhao Huaxin International Trade Co., which takes in about a million tons of iron ore a year, especially if appreciation is a gradual as most analysts expect. And any savings could also be offset by rises in price independent of the currency-iron ore spot prices have climbed 40% this year on strong demand, though prices have stabilized in the last two weeks and are expected to see some softening in the second half of 2010.
Nor would the impact be entirely one-sided. The vast majority of China's steel is used for domestic consumption-around 565 million tons last year. But it also exported 24.6 million tons of steel, and exports could suffer from a pricier Chinese currency. Steel-product exports have more than doubled in the first five months of this year.
Stainless steel exporters are especially vulnerable, as China is a large exporter of the product. 'Stainless steel consumption will be significantly affected,' says Jiang Xinfang, president director Shanghai Tsingshan Mineral Co., China's largest privately-owned stainless steel producer. But he says that a stronger yuan would also cut costs for raw materials used in stainless steel like nickel and chrome, which mostly come from overseas. 'Over the long run, consumption should be lifted due to lower production cost,' he said.
Another senior official with CISA said the day after the yuan announcement that 'appreciation will definitely affect the steel industry,' with makers of some products-like seamless pipe and silicon sheet steel-experiencing a particularly tough time since their prices are already more or less even with those of foreign rivals.
But overall, he said, 'China's steel industry can absorb the effect under the current circumstances.' He estimated that a 3% rise in the Chinese currency against the dollar would only erode about 10% to 15% of the gap between prices for Chinese steel products and the more expensive products made by competitors in the U.S. and in Europe. China's products are 'still much cheaper,' he said, noting also that international demand is currently quite healthy.
CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets says that some of the biggest beneficiaries of a stronger yuan in the metals industry would be foreign companies that will enjoy rising prices that result from a move but don't have any of their costs in yuan. The brokerage points to aluminum companies like Australia's Alumina, Russia's Rusal, and India's Hindalco Industries.
The impact of a pricier yuan on other kinds of commodities and agricultural imports, could be less significant than in minerals and metals.
A spokesman at Tyson Foods Inc. said the Springdale, Ark., meat company 'won't speculate on the impact' of a yuan rise. Tyson generated about $442 million of its fiscal 2009 sales, or 1.7%, from exports to China as well as from its operations there.
David Salmonsen, a trade specialist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, a farmer trade group in Washington, said the more expensive yuan 'would be helpful in making our exports more competitively priced, but if the Chinese currency adjusts also against other nations' currencies no one country may see an advantage for their exports.'
In soybeans, a gradual appreciation is unlikely to significantly raise imports because companies' production schedules are fixed to meet projected demand, so the exchange rate isn't likely to impact trade much in the near term, said a trader with Jiusan Oil and Fat Co., a large soybean importer.
'Soybean imports are not only decided by the exchange rate. Supply and demand as well as seasonal factors are more crucial,' said Hu Kai, an analyst with Dalu Futures Co.
Yue Li / Chuin-Wei Yap / Yajun Zhang / Tracy Zheng
中国为世界上以美元计价大宗商品的{zd0}买家，它将从人民币升值中获益。就拿去年的进口量来说，如果人民币兑美元升值3%左右，达到人民币6.6元兑1美 元，中国在铁矿石和铜的进口费用上就可节省28亿美元，这笔钱可以多购买大约3,500万吨铁矿石。中国2009年的铁矿石进口量为6.28亿吨。
中 国钢铁工业协会(CISA)常务副会长罗冰生最近说，从进口的角度讲，人民币汇率重估对中国是有益的。他指出，中国的焦炭进口量也在日益增加。焦炭是炼钢 的原料之一。
分析师们说，这有可能产生更广泛的连锁反应：在中国2005年上调人民币汇率后，全球大宗商品的价格稳步上涨了一年多，而在 6月21日，也就是中国央行宣布人民币汇率制度改革后的{dy}个交易日，大宗商品价格再度大幅上扬。
不过，目前受到影响的可能还只限于日照华信国际贸易有限公司(Rizhao Huaxin International Trade Co.)这样的大宗商品大型进口商，该公司每年的铁矿石进口量约为100万吨，如果人民币像大多数分析师预计的那样只是渐进升值，情况更是如此。而大宗商 品价格上涨也有可能将中国进口商因人民币升值而节省下的进口成本侵蚀掉。由于市场需求强劲，铁矿石现货价格今年已上涨了40%，不过这一价格过去两周已经 稳定下来，而且今年下半年预计还能略有下降。
人民币汇率制度改革的影响也不会是xx单 方面的。中国生产的钢主要供国内消费，中国去年消费了约5.56亿吨钢。但中国去年还出口了2,460万吨钢，人民币升值有可能打击中国的钢铁出口。今年 前五个月，中国的钢铁产品出口增长了一倍以上。
不锈钢出口商尤其容易受到打击，因为中国是不锈钢出口大国。中国{zd0}私营不锈钢生产商上海 青山矿产品有限公司的总经理江新芳说，不锈钢消费将受到重大影响。但他也表示，人民币升值会降低镍和铬等生产不锈钢所用原材料的采购成本，这些原料主要来 自海外。江新芳说，长期而言，生产成本降低将会提振消费。
中国钢铁工业协会的另一位高级官员在中国宣布人民币汇率改革的次日说，人民币升 值肯定会影响钢铁行业，无缝钢管和硅钢片等钢铁制品的生产商日子将尤其难过，因为他们的产品价格已或多或少与国外竞争对手持平。
但他也表 示，在目前环境下，中国钢铁行业总体上能够消化人民币升值的影响。他估计，如果人民币兑美元升值3%，中国钢铁产品和美欧国家钢铁产品间的价差只会缩窄 10%至15%左右，中国产品依然会便宜得多。他还指出，钢铁产品的国际需求状况目前十分良好。
里昂证券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)说，金属行业从人民币升值中获益{zd0}的公司包括一些外国企业，它们既能从产品价格的不断上涨中得益，又不存在任何人民币成本。里昂证券亚 太区市场说，澳大利亚的Alumina、俄罗斯的Rusal和印度的Hindalco Industries等铝业公司就属于这类企业。
与 矿产品和金属产品相比，人民币升值对其他大宗商品和农产品进口的影响可能不会那么大。
美国肉类企业泰森食品有限公司(Tyson Foods Inc.)的发言人说，公司不愿意对人民币升值的影响进行猜测。该公司2009财政年度对华出口及在华业务实现的收入为4.42亿美元，占公司当年销售收 入的1.7%。
美国农场主贸易组织美国农业社团联合会(American Farm Bureau Federation)的贸易专家萨默森(David Salmonsen)说，虽然人民币升值有助于提高美国出口农产品的价格竞争力，但如果人民币兑美元以外的其他货币也同样升值，则或许没有一个国家能在对 华农产品出口方面获得优势。
以大豆为例，大型大豆进口商九三油脂有限责任公司(Jiusan Oil and Fat Co.)的一位交易员称，人民币逐步升值不大可能提振大豆进口，因为企业是根据预期市场需求来确定生产计划的，因此汇率因素短期内不大可能给大豆进口带来 太大影响。
大陆期货(Dalu Futures Co.)的分析师胡凯（音）表示，大豆进口并不是仅仅由汇率因素决定的，供求情况以及季节性因素的作用更为关键。
Yue Li / Chuin-Wei Yap / Yajun Zhang / Tracy Zheng
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