工业作为一个整体状况良好，经营
自2002年以来
，造纸行业一直高于国内生产总值增长速度的发展，02年至2006年造纸行业的生产和销售增长超过10％的年增长率，主要是快速增长国民经济和人民生活水平的不断提高。

2007年前三季度，中国的造纸工业固定资产投资增长明显加快，在今年内完成557.4亿元，比增长28.30％，累计金额。主要的原因是：价格持续高企的原材料，造纸企业加强原材料，投资源源不断并在2007年建设“林业控制林纸一体化”项目，作为xx落后生产能力的结果，和转换等因素，纸品改善了市场供求关系，在经济复苏行业程度的情况。

度视角，从工业，造纸及纸制品业在2006年下半年度业务的经济，标志着木浆及废纸价格的下降导致了成本的增加作为一个整体，毛利率下降的行业是其主要的原因。 2007年，上涨木浆，废纸价格比2006年增幅较少，而纸品市场供大于求的情况有所改善，造纸及纸制品业的经营度显着上升。

明确的政策支持

“一个全面的能源减少工作程序”

2007年6个月，国务院制定了“节能减排综合工作方案”，其中{dy}次会议上表明了中国的“第十一届九五“期间，淘汰落后的生产能力的详细目标。其中在“十一五”期间将造纸行业关闭了650万吨的生产能力，将在2007年关闭，约二百三十〇点零万吨。落后生产能力主要包括3.4万吨的秸秆以下纸浆生产厂年生产能力1.7万吨以下化学制浆生产线和排放不遵守以下，年生产能力1万吨的废纸为原料，年产到造纸厂。

大幅落后生产能力淘汰，既减少了工业的污染排放量，而且还有助于改善中国的造纸行业的xxxx，产业集中度奠定了基础做大做强。

“造纸产业发展政策”

“的政策目标，产业布局，原料结构，产品结构，技术和设备，组织结构，造纸工业发展政策”的文件，行业标准的收入，投资融资，资源节约，环境保护与更为详细的规定的其他方面。它的推出是旨在提高对造纸工业的发展环境，建设林纸业相结合，促进造纸工业可持续发展。

“政策”将在造纸工业发展的几个方面介绍了将产生重大影响：纸和纸板适度控制项目;行业整合和市场准入;产业布局从北“向南”调整，以木材纤维，废纸为原料，避免行业垄断。

“造纸产业发展政策”对造纸工业的发展指明了方向制定。首先，将促进造纸工业原料，改善管理，降低原材料对外依存度，促进产业升级;第二，该文件将有助于改善工业布局和结构，增长速度工业一体化速度，提高产业集中度并支持并购行为的xxxx，{zh1}，该文件将有助于降低该行业的能源，水消耗和污染。

“林业产业政策要点”
在林业产业，七部委全国会议
发展“林业产业政策要点。”作为林业的主要下游产业，造纸行业也将受益于一个推出了一系列扶持政策。首先，林业将享受税收优惠政策，从事林项目的收入免税，以降低企业所得税;其次，政府要求政策性银行适当延长林业快速发展的木材和工业原料林xx期限基地建设项目xx期限放宽至12-20年;再次，积极推进森林，林木和林地使用权的转让;{zh1}，政府将支持林业产业，增加优惠，xx贴息。
在短期内上市公司的基本面的政策文件
不会有重大变化，但是从长远来看，有“森林纸浆林纸一体化”项目将直接受益于造纸企业。同时，随着林权转让逐步放开，越来越多的造纸公司预计将逐步建立自己的“林浆纸一体化”项目，行业整体竞争力将大大增强。

面临贸易制裁，以保护

2006年度进口和出口中国的纸张出口情况是进口大幅增长减少，但具体产品分化：纸浆进口仍持续增长，而纸张和纸板的进口下降。在新闻纸进口下降，这是非常大，对中国和泰国的原因是2006年和80万吨下半年晨鸣两个由一个供过于求造成的国内新闻纸生产的生产线。纸和纸板进口减少，这表明中国的纸产品在中国的竞争力作出了改进。

2007年仍在继续进口和出口在2006年形势：纸浆进口继续增长，但，纸和纸板的进口下降，出口上升。

需要指出的是，中国的纸张出口将面临贸易保护主义的风险。 2007年，中国的文件遭受了一系列反倾销和反补贴制裁。虽然中国的纸制品出口的制裁并不多品种，范围不宽，但必须提请中国造纸工业的关注。

人民币汇率的影响，造纸行业一直是发展的重要因素。较高的值沿途人民币，在一个通道，它在中国的文件有两个很显着，导致增加：一方面，人民币升值，将降低海外原材料采购成本，国内钢厂;另一方面， ，中国的纸产品出口大幅上升，人民币升值将减少纸产品的价格优势，不利于中国的纸张纸制品出口企业中国的出口。

年至2006年为例，木浆，废纸，纸及纸板，纸制品总三千二百一十六点〇 〇万吨进口，与美国会议一百十二万五点零零万美元，出口纸张，纸板和纸浆，废纸，纸制品共计491万值得五十点零零零亿美元吨。如果美元兑人民币1％，而较少使用的外汇进口一万一千三点零零零万美元，而出口创汇050000000美元总体上减少，减少外汇的使用，063万美元。

可以看出，对造纸行业当前人民币升值的利大于弊。然而，由于中国的纸张出口逐步增加，造纸行业，人民币升值了良好的将逐步减少。

Paper cycles export trade protection risks faced by

Industry as a whole operating in good condition

Since 2002, the paper industry has been higher than GDP growth rate of development, from 2002 to 2006 paper industry production and sales to grow at a CAGR of over 10%, mainly The rapid growth of the national economy and people’s living standards rising.

2007 During the first three quarters, China’s paper industry fixed asset investment growth picked up significantly, to complete a cumulative amount of 55.74 billion yuan, an increase of 28.30%. The main reason: the continued high prices of raw materials, paper-making enterprises to strengthen control of raw materials, a steady stream of investment and construction in 2007, “forestry-paper integration” project; as a result of eliminating backward production capacity, and converting such factors, the paper products have improved the situation of market supply and demand, industry degree of rebound in the economy.

degree view of the economy from industry, paper and paper products industry business degrees in the second half of 2006 has marked decline in wood pulp and waste paper prices resulted in an increase in cost the industry as a whole, gross margin decline was its the main reason. 2007, as wood pulp, waste paper prices rose less than the extent of the increase in 2006, while the paper market oversupply situation has improved, making paper and paper products industry business degrees rose significantly.

clear policy support

“a comprehensive energy reduction program of work”

2007 years 6 months, the State Council formulated the “energy-saving emission reduction integrated program of work”, in which the first meeting made clear China’s “Eleventh Five-Year” period and eliminate backward production capacity of the detailed objectives. Which the paper industry in the “Eleventh Five-Year” period will be closed for nearly 6.5 million tons of production capacity, which will be closed in 2007, about 2,300,000 tons. Out backward production capacity mainly includes the following annual production capacity of 34,000 tons straw pulp production plant, annual production capacity below 17,000 tons of chemical pulp production line and the emission of non-compliance following an annual output of 10,000 tons of waste paper as raw materials to paper mills.

substantial backward capacity elimination, they are reducing the pollution emissions of the industry, but also help improve China’s paper industry industrial concentration for leading enterprises laid the foundation for bigger and stronger.

“Paper Industry Development Policy”

“Paper Industry Development Policy” paper on the policy objectives, industrial layout, material structure, product mix, technology and equipment, organizational structure, industry standards income, investment financing, resource conservation, environmental protection and other aspects of the more detailed provisions. Its introduction is aimed at improving the environment for the development of paper industry, building林纸业combine to promote the sustainable development of paper industry.

“policy” will be introduced in several aspects of the development of paper industry will have a significant impact: moderate control of paper and paperboard projects; industry integration and market access; industrial layout “from north to south” adjust; to wood fiber, waste paper as raw materials; avoid industrial monopolies.

“Paper Industry Development Policy” enacted for the paper industry clear direction for the development. First of all, will contribute to the paper industry raw materials, improve control, reduce external dependence on raw materials and promoting industrial upgrading; Secondly, the paper will contribute to improving industrial layout and structure, speed up industrial integration of speed, improve industrial concentration and support the leading enterprises of the M & A behavior; Finally, the paper will contribute to reduce the industry’s energy, water consumption and pollution.

“forestry industry policy points”

at the national meeting of forestry industry, seven ministries and commissions to develop a “forestry industry policy points.” As a forestry major downstream industries, paper industry will also benefit from the introduction of a series of supportive policies. First of all, the forestry will enjoy preferential taxation policies, to engage in income exempt from Lin project, to reduce corporate income tax; Secondly, the Government requested the extension of policy banks appropriate forestry loan period of fast growing timber and industrial raw material forest base construction project loan period of relaxation to 12-20 years; again, actively promote the forests, trees and forest land use right transfer; Finally, the Government will support the forestry industry to increase the discount, and discount loans.

of the policy paper in the short term fundamentals of listed companies will not have major changes, but in the long term, have a “forest-pulp-paper integration” project will directly benefit from the paper-making enterprises . At the same time, with the transfer of forest ownership gradually liberalized, more and more paper companies are expected to gradually set up its own “forest-pulp-paper integration” project, the overall competitiveness of the industry is expected to be greatly enhanced.

face trade sanctions to protect

2006 the annual import and export situation of China’s paper exports are a substantial growth in imports were reduced, but the differentiation of specific products: pulp imports still continued to grow, while paper and paperboard decline in imports. Decline in imports of newsprint which is very large, and the reasons for China and Thailand are the second half of 2006 and 800,000 tons Chenming two production lines of domestic production caused by an oversupply of newsprint. Paper and paperboard imports decreased, indicating that China’s paper products made in China’s competitiveness has improved.

2007 still continues the years of import and export situation in 2006: Pulp imports continue to grow still, and paper and paperboard imports fell and exports rose.

needs to be pointed out is that China’s paper exports will face the risk of trade protectionism. In 2007, China’s paper suffered a series of anti-dumping and countervailing sanctions. Although China’s export of paper products are not many varieties of sanctions, the scope is not wide, but must draw the attention of China’s paper industry.

the RMB exchange rate affect the paper industry has always been an important factor in development. Higher the value of the renminbi along the way, in a very marked increase in channel, which resulted in China’s paper twofold: on the one hand, the appreciation of the renminbi, will reduce domestic mills overseas raw material procurement costs; On the other hand, China’s paper products exports increased substantially, the RMB appreciation would reduce China’s exports of paper products a price advantage is not conducive to China’s paper exports paper products business.

to 2006 as an example, imports of wood pulp, waste paper, paper and paperboard, paper products total 32.16 million tons, with 11.25 billion U.S. dollars Meeting; export paper and paperboard, paper pulp, waste paper, paper products Total 491 10,000 tons, worth five billion U.S. dollars. If the RMB against the U.S. dollar 1%, while imports of less use of foreign exchange 113 million U.S. dollars, while exports earned 050 million U.S. dollars less, on the whole, less use of foreign exchange 063 million U.S. dollars.

can be seen that the current appreciation of the renminbi on the paper industry, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. However, as China’s paper exports gradually increase the yuan’s revaluation on the paper industry generated good will gradually decrease. (07-12-3)