Late last year, China’s auto industry, one of the greatest suspense, than the timing of the fuel tax policy in the end. Recently, fuel tax, the introduction of the topic is heating up again. Petroleum Forum in Shanghai, a number of participating experts, said: from China’s oil system, opening up the oil market timing and the “Energy Law” and other legal provisions supporting the promulgation of the organic combination of factors to consider the introduction of fuel tax should be the beginning of the year; the most likely the levying of a proportion of the retail price of petroleum products 30% to 50%.

but the fuel tax policy really will be able to do so quickly introduced? Let us first look at the historical bar.

as early as 1994, the relevant departments on a formal proposal to levy a fuel tax’s motion. 1997 National People’s Congress adopted the “Highway Law,” was first proposed in order to “fuel surcharge” alternative to road maintenance and so on, to be January 1, 1998 since the implementation of specific measures by the State Council has decided.

2001 Nian 1 4, when he was Secretary of the State Administration of Taxation Jin said the fuel tax has been put in place, will levy the tax at the appropriate time. A year later, Jin once again claimed that “fuel tax will choose an introduction.”

2005 Nian 1 11, the State Administration of Taxation Xie Xuren said that the fuel tax reform program has been through the study of initial views, but need more appropriate time to launch; January 22, the State Council Development Research Center report claimed that China has enacted fuel tax collection program, which will choose the country to announce the launch; September 13, the National Development and Reform Commission deputy director Zhang pointed out that more and more people understand that fuel tax is necessary to , the introduction of fuel tax has been referred to the agenda.

can be seen that the fuel tax policy really be regarded as a call issued endless.

I believe that: the fuel tax policy will be introduced sooner or later, this trend is not reiterate them. If, however, from a public policy perspective, the timing of policy implementation to be very careful, otherwise would have had a large effect. In the present, even in the future, a longer period of time, our country does not have the appropriate fuel tax on policy environment.

First, the international crude oil prices have been high. When the fuel tax reform policy, one of the keys to the possibility of a longer period depending on oil prices stable at a low price level. The introduction of the ideals of the international crude oil price should be an average of 22-25 U.S. dollars a barrel in between. To calculate the current gasoline prices, if the introduction of fuel tax would make the entire fuel market to soar about 25%, which makes gasoline consumers, especially non-motor fuel to consumers difficult to accept. Judging from the current international oil market situation, the future, China will face in the medium and long term high oil prices, international environment. If the international oil price to be the introduction of fuel tax time would be premature.

Second, China’s industries and businesses currently can not afford the high resource prices brought about by pressure of survival. Domestic industries and enterprises in low-resource prices long-term environment, in economic activity caused by the introduction of fuel tax rise in fuel costs, is its current can not bear. Particularly in agriculture and some downstream industries, they are weak in the areas of price increases. From the official view of corporate earnings, corporate profits to the upstream concentration of resources in enterprises is extremely serious, and many industry further deterioration of corporate profits. If the resource prices rise more common, there will be difficult to maintain a large number of downstream businesses, there are a large number of farmers income would be completely eaten prices.

third, with the current fuel tax policy is contrary to the spirit of expanding domestic demand, the objective will play a “restrain demand” role. Now and the future of a long period of time, China’s economic environment forced us from the “sell out” Go to the “inward-sell” in order to achieve sustainable growth and development. But also in the “Eleventh Five-Year” period, the automotive industry to be more prominent in macro-economic characteristics of the pillar industries. By 2010, China’s automobile industry the proportion of value-added share of GDP, from the “95″ Less than 1% of the end of further increase to 2.5%. However, if in the current context of high oil prices, fuel tax, automobile industry development will be hindered, but also to start domestic demand will also have negative effects.

From this it can be judged, fuel tax, introduced in the short term will be difficult.

我国没有对燃油税政策的出台适当的环境，

去年年底，中国的汽车业，{zd0}的悬念之一，比最终燃油税政策的时机。最近，燃油税，该专题的推出再次升温。石油在上海，参加一些专家，论坛说：从中国石油系统，开放石油市场的时机和“能源法”和其他支持的因素有机结合考虑颁布实施燃油税的法律规定应该是今年年初，最有可能的是石油产品的零售价30％至50％的比例征收。

但燃油税政策真的能够如此迅速地做介绍？让我们先看看历史吧。

早在1994年，在正式提出开征燃油税的议案，有关部门。 1997年全国人大通过了“公路法”，首次提出以“燃油附加费”替代道路的维修等，为1998年1月1日以来的具体措施，由国务院决定的执行情况。

2001念1 4日，当时他是国家税务总局局长金说，燃油税已经到位，将征收在适当的时候税。一年后，金再次声称“燃油税将择机推出。”

2005念1 11，国家税务总局解须仁说，燃油税改革方案已通过初步意见的研究，但需要更多适当的时候推出，1月22日，国务院发展研究中心的报告称，中国已制定征收燃油税方案，将选择该国宣布启动; 9月13日，国家发展和改革委员会副主任张指出，越来越多的人认识到，燃油税是必要的，实行提高燃料税已被提到议事日程。

可以看出，燃油税的政策，实为是呼吁视为发出无穷。

我相信：在燃油税政策将推出迟早，这种趋势不加以重申。但是，如果从公共政策的角度来看，政策实施的时间要非常小心，否则就会有很大影响。在目前，即使在将来，一个较长的时间，我国没有适当的政策环境的燃油税。

首先，国际原油价格一直居高不下。当燃油税改革的政策，关键之一在一段较长的时间取决于石油价格稳定在一个较低的价格水平的可能性。在国际原油价格的理念引入应该是22-25美元每桶之间的平均水平。为了计算目前的汽油价格，如果燃油税的出台，将使整个燃料市场飙升约25％，这使得汽油消费者尤其是非汽车燃料的消费者难以接受。从目前国际石油市场的情况看，今后，中国将面临中期和长期高油价，国际环境。如果国际油价是燃油税推出的时间还为时过早。

第二，中国的产业和企业目前无法负担高昂的资源价格所带来的生存压力。国内产业和企业的低资源价格长期环境的燃料税，燃油成本上升造成的经济活动引进，是目前无法承受。特别是在农业和一些下游产业，它们是薄弱，价格上涨的地区。从企业盈利官员认为，将资源集中在企业的上游企业利润是十分严重，许多工业企业利润进一步恶化。如果资源价格上涨较为常见，但将难以维持下游企业众多，是农民收入将有一大批xx烂掉价格。

第三，目前的燃油税政策，违背了扩大内需的精神，目标将起到“抑制需求”的作用。现在和一个长期的未来，中国的经济环境，被迫从“出卖”转到“向内卖”，以实现可持续增长和发展我们。而且在“十一五”期间，汽车产业更加突出宏观支柱产业的经济特征。到2010年，中国汽车行业的价值比重占GDP的比重增加，从“95”不到1的进一步增加至2.5％，结束％。但是，如果在高油价，燃油税目前的情况下，汽车产业的发展将受到阻碍，而且也是为了启动内需，也有负面影响。

由此可以判断，燃油税，在短期内将难以实施。
06.1.27