Charlie and I avoid businesses whose futures we can’t evaluate, no matter howexciting their products may be. In the past, it required no brilliance for people toforesee the fabulous growth that awaited such industries as autos (in 1910), aircraft(in 1930) and television sets (in 1950). But the future then also included competitivedynamics that would decimate almost all of the companies entering those industries.Even the survivors tended to come away bleeding.查理和我避开我们不能评估其未来的业务,无论他们的产品可能多么激动人心。过去,即使是普通人也能预测到汽车(1910 年)、飞机(1930 年)和电视机(1950 年)这些行业的蓬勃发展。不过,未来则会包含会扼杀所有进军这些行业的公司的竞争动力,即使幸存者也常常是鲜血淋漓地离开。