the National Bureau of Statistics announced August 13 residents in July consumer price data, the month the consumer price index than the same month last year rose 5.6 percent. In our view, the following points should be noted.

— CPI has accelerated the momentum up. 5.6 percent of the consumer price increase has exceeded the 2003-2004 period rose 5.3 percent high point, and in February 1997 to create a new high since. From the monthly consumer price changes in terms of 5-July consumer prices rose by 3.4%, 4.4% and 5.6%, or were 0.4,1.0,1.2 percentage points last month to speed up, the consumer price index shown clear signs of accelerating the momentum up.

— from the composition of the consumer price factors, resulting in rising consumer prices to accelerate the main factors is the food. July food prices driving up consumer prices 5.1 percentage points, on consumer prices last month increased the pulling effect of 1.3 percentage points. From food internal perspective, the changes cause for concern, there are two major aspects: First, in pork prices, led by poultry and related products continue to raise prices on consumer prices continue to increase contributions; second is affected by the weather and flood disasters the impact of the prices of fresh vegetables rose significantly expanded, becoming the consumer price rise of new forces.

— look at non-food price inflation may have underestimated the current situation. In theory, excluding volatility relatively large category of goods and services after the core price index for a better position to accurately reflect the economy’s inflationary pressures. However, as the core of our country is not directly published CPI, the market often to non-food prices to replace the core CPI. This view, the current non-food prices rose only 0.9 percent, price is not high, but for the following considerations to remove food prices after the non-food prices to determine an underestimation of the current rate of inflation. First, food consumption in China’s consumption accounted for more than 30 percent in completely excluding food prices after the non-food prices hard to truly reflect the purchasing power of residents and changes in expenditures; Second, food prices led to both seasonal temporary factors factors (such as bad weather caused by fresh vegetables prices), but also continuing the trend of factors (such as feed costs, labor costs rise in pork prices), in the present circumstances, the latter accounted for a greater contribution. Excluding food prices, after the non-food prices did not reflect these fundamental factors leading to changes in food prices; three non-food prices contained a large number of public utility prices and the price of services. As the prices of most public utility pricing for government projects, the Government is often the basis of price increases in other areas the situation to decide on government time and intensity of price, inflationary pressures in other areas when the Government will make a greater slowdown or suspension of the Government of the price adjustment, which makes non-food prices low. Core CPI in accordance with the standard definition of strict calculation, we are expected to present the core CPI will rise much higher than the non-food price levels.

— Overall, the CPI measure of whether it is still a more accurate measure of core CPI, China’s price level has reached the stage of inflation, we expect inflation era arrival. Given the current push up the consumer price of pork prices and other factors difficult to disappear in the short term, while excess liquidity and enhanced corporate pricing power, driven by an increasing number of goods and services to enter the ranks of prices, we expect This round of inflation would be a clear and sustained strong in 2004, food prices resulting from price increases. The second half of the consumer price is expected to rise 5.5 percent more than in. According to our monthly model forecasts, the year will appear in the high 9,10 month, CPI growth will exceed 6 percent. Pork supply due to an increase in first half of next year than this year’s CPI increase somewhat lower, but gains are also expected to remain at about 5%.

— With the inflationary pressures emerged, stable prices in the importance of macro-control will be improved significantly. We expect price stability in the country’s main policies include: First, to accelerate the appreciation. Our empirical research shows that the currency appreciation has played well the effects of inflation. In the context of inflation, the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to significantly speed up the rate. This year the renminbi against the U.S. dollar will reach 7.3, 6 percent appreciation, the end of next year yuan-dollar rate will reach 6.7, 8 percent revaluation. Second, to speed up the rate. Inflation rates low interest rates make the problem even more prominent, and also makes the pace of normalization of interest rates will speed up distinctly. The next 12 months, the rate will increase 3 times. First half of next year will be on deposit interest rate to 4.14 percent level. Third, through administrative means to control the government price. Because there are still some government pricing projects, the Government through the scope and intensity of price control to prevent prices rising too fast. At present, National Development and Reform Commission has issued three demands price inflation over the intended target of the local government to suspend the price adjustment measures introduced, with the 5 percent price break, is expected to central and local government by limiting the price adjustment to control the rising prices will further increase the intensity.

通胀压力再次管制政策或“提示”

国家统计局8月13日宣布在7月份居民消费价格数据，当月居民消费价格指数比去年同月上涨百分之五点六。我们认为，以下几点应该指出的。

—消费物价指数加速上涨的势头。百分之五点六的消费者物价上涨率已超过了2003-2004年期间增长百分之五点三的高点，并于1997年2月创建以来的新高。从每月消费价格变动中的5 7月份消费者价格上涨3.4 ％ ， 4.4 ％和5.6 ％ ，或为0.4,1.0,1.2个百分点，上个月加快，居民消费价格指数呈现明显的加速上涨的势头。

—从构成居民消费价格因素，导致消费物价上升加快的主要因素是粮食。 7月食品价格推高消费价格5.1个百分点，对消费物价上个月增加的拉动作用1.3个百分点。从食品内部的角度来看，变化令人xx，主要有两个方面：{dy}，在猪肉价格下跌，导致家禽及相关产品继续提高价格对消费物价继续增加捐款;二是受天气和洪涝灾害的影响，蔬菜价格上涨显着扩大，成为消费价格上涨的新力量。

—看非食品价格通胀可能低估了目前的局势。从理论上讲，不包括波动性较大的一类商品和服务后的核心价格指数更能够准确反映经济的通胀压力。然而，为核心的我国并不直接公布消费物价指数，市场往往以非食品价格来代替核心CPI 。这种观点认为，目前非食品价格仅上涨百分之零点九，价格不高，但考虑到下列因素xx后，粮食价格的非食品价格，以确定是低估了当前的通货膨胀率。首先，粮食消费在中国的消费占百分之三十以上，xx剔除食品价格后，非食品价格难以真实反映居民的购买力和变化的开支;第二，粮食价格上涨导致两个季节性临时因素因素（如天气恶劣造成的新鲜蔬菜的价格） ，但这一趋势还在继续的因素（如饲料成本，劳动力成本上升，猪肉价格） ，在目前情况下，后者占了更大的贡献。扣除食品价格后，非食品价格没有反映出这些基本因素的变化，粮食价格上涨;三个非食品价格包含了大量的公用事业价格和服务项目价格。由于价格最公用事业价格为政府项目，政府往往是根据价格上涨在其他领域的情况来决定政府的时间和强度的价格，通货膨胀的压力在其他领域时，政府将作出更大的滑坡，或者暂停政府的价格调整，这使得非食品价格低。核心消费者物价指数符合标准定义严格计算，我们预计目前的核心CPI将增长远远高于非食品价格水平。

—总体而言，消费者物价指数衡量它是否仍是一个更准确的核心消费物价指数衡量，中国的价格水平已经达到了阶段的通货膨胀，我们预计通货膨胀率的时代到来。鉴于目前推动居民消费价格的猪肉价格和其他因素难以消失在短期内，而流动性过剩和企业定价能力增强的推动下，越来越多的货物和服务进入队伍的价格，我们希望这一轮的通货膨胀将是一个明确的和持续强劲， 2004年，粮食价格上涨引起的价格上涨。下半年居民消费价格预计将增长百分之五点五以上英寸根据我们的月度模型预测，今年将会出现在高9,10月份，消费物价指数增长将超过百分之六。由于猪肉供应的增加，明年上半年比今年的消费物价指数增长有所回落，但涨幅预计也将保持在5 ％左右。

—随着通货膨胀压力的出现，物价稳定的重要性，宏观调控将显着提高。我们希望价格稳定在该国的主要政策包括：{dy}，加快赞赏。我们的实证研究表明，货币升值已经打得很好通货膨胀的影响。在通货膨胀，人民币升值预期将大大加快速度。今年人民币对美元将达到7.3 ，升值百分之六，明年年底人民币兑美元的汇率将达到6.7 ，升值百分之八。第二，加快速度。通货膨胀率低利率使问题更加突出，同时也使正常化的步伐加息将加快明显。在未来12个月，这一比率将增加3倍。明年上半年将存款利率从4.14百分之水平。第三，通过行政手段来控制政府的代价。由于还有一些政府定价项目，政府通过的范围和强度的价格控制，以防止价格上涨过快。目前，国家发展和改革委员会发布了三项要求物价通胀率超过预定目标的地方政府暂停价格调整措施，以百分之五的价格打破，预计中央和地方通过限制政府的价格调整控制物价上涨将进一步加大。