buyers wait and see, the owners are also tough, so a tug of war began. Comics / Kuang Biao

intermediary is expected to spread the two sides about 10%, some buyers can only receive the beginning of last year prices

Market Scan

their buyers and sellers adhere to each other so that

9.27 New Deal mortgages, hundreds of sets of limit the introduction of the Housing, Canada on the national series of austerity policies signal, so that the property market running slam the brakes all the way. According to first-line brokers reflected the mentality of the majority of owners in October last year to now some anxiety into the wait-and-see. Affected by the overall atmosphere of the buyer, but also to be down in a wait-and-see situation.

stalemate between the two sides resulted in second-hand housing turnover has dropped significantly. Wait-and-see market, the most injured I am afraid it is an intermediary company, by the end of December last year, accompanied by several major intermediary firms around the closure, as well as all卷款contraction intermediary faces a number of small-Canton closed the fate, while the intermediary has no choice but to modify its development strategies, intermediary如期而至winter.

[disk source] investors withdraw source field plate increase

last year in October, second-hand property market began to appear “more than one three-less” ( Multi-disc release, anti-price less the buyer less turnover less) situation. According to brokers reflected investors focus on the plate, such as the Pearl River New City, such as plate洛溪most affected. With the withdrawal of investors, trading volume fell, it was generally fall into one or two, and some fell into about three, individual or even as much as 50% down. Previous investors are also accelerating the hands of the property will be dished out, the source of increased disk.

month 11,12 enter the property market see a more intense atmosphere, the buyer then set at a slower rate. There were a lot of disk copies of the source of August or September after a peak period of the anti-price to price cuts in November, even if still unable to sell.

2008 Lunar New Year, the market set the source of an average increase of 5%, and some hot plates or even 20% -30%. market spectators increased, but failed to pick-up in the actual turnover, the sale of wait-and-see mood on both sides increased.

crazy property market in recent years, a large part of the reason is that investors短炒behavior. Recalling a number of brokers, Panyu, a large group have a more than 10 years old, but 80% of the property cards have 5 years, however, the owners have already replaced 34 or even more. Changing hands and most occurred in the next few years. By 2007, prices quickly jump up high and be able to access the majority of the investment set-off or multiple home buyers, mortgage New Deal effectively curbed the behavior of people buying houses. At the same time the investors forced the hands of a large number of disk source, and thus give rise to increased supply situation.

[intermediary] industry supervision intensified shuffle

intermediary in the end of last year the market has experienced a cold in the harsh and painful lesson. In November last year, second-hand housing turnover began to decline, the line to stop the expansion of intermediary steps, small intermediary firms eking out a subsistence living. Shenzhen Zhongtian卷款negative incident even worse, the industry experienced an unprecedented credit crisis. The incident has once again challenged the beginning of the year创辉laws of the development of intermediary business and development models, while the industry into the future supervision.

intermediary industry is a low access threshold, the labor-intensive industries, the size of their industry with the expansion of the property market and the expansion, many people may have noticed that the middle of last year, the city’s every street every corner to see the intermediary company’s figure, of which big brokerages branch, there are many similar “family-run shop” shop, as long as the peg on the licenses are engaged in the work of intermediary services. However, once the situation is reversed, clearance stores, and other things constantly坑蒙拐骗staged.

gone through half a year, “suffering”, the intermediary trades the perfect place to reflect on the many, in fact, currently government departments and the management of intermediary firms are aware of. In January from the prohibition of intermediary collecting second-hand housing transaction escrow funds to the new “real estate intermediary services in Guangzhou regulations” promulgated, the Government department in charge of great determination.

[Buyer] the initiative in hand and then wait and see wait and see

the mentality of buyers and sellers as the market is always good or bad the turn of the conversion. When business is good, the initiative in the hands of the owners hands, they are proud to dominate the feelings of the buyer, together with the intermediary to fan the flames, when many of the biggest reasons home buyers are worried that prices had jumped its own can not afford to buy. Market is bad, the situation Qiankun great diversion, in November last year and December is the short-term investors, the most anxiety, when there are many property owners in their few days off when no one is interested, call the intermediary asked三天两头situation.

enter the New Year, the market seems to be a feeling that the dust has settled, the sell sell sell’s in no hurry to sell. For many “not anxious to spend money,” the owners, the house remains the most hedge products, but also the uncertainty of the stock market has also made some investment funds back to the property market. So the mentality of owners regression also tough, but let the market set the price changes as there will be minor adjustments. And buyers in a seesaw battle in this accumulation of strength, grasp the initiative, the buyer’s counter-growing phenomenon.

All rich home professionals that the current ability to objectively assess the value of the property owners whether or not timely and successfully sell their properties, and this prompted the current owners no longer blindly adhere High release plate price. The buyers range selection, and negotiation of space has also increased, the mentality of a buyer’s market and naturally strong, and buyers to keep the prices down but the phenomenon has increased, prices have also increased the rate, but buyers and sellers in the cognitive psychological price inconsistent, leading to both sides of the expected target price over time.

● interpret

market turnover average fell more than 1 / 3

survey, Liwan District, Yuexiu District, and relatively stable real estate transactions, and transactions compared with the boom of the past, Tianhe District, Panyu, South China plate洛溪, Hoi Chu Road, Newport West and industrial plate, Baiyun District, such as large-scale real estate transactions in the larger drop.

table properties can be roughly divided into two categories, one category is large, when the volume旺市very large, experienced a falling market, even if the decline, it still may be the city’s most active real estate transactions, such as carvedilol River and South China plates Clifford, Lijiang Garden, Country Garden, such as Canton. According to the vicinity of intermediary reflected Recently the average turnover of these properties for sale fell in 1 / 3 or more. In addition to Panyu, the Hoi Chu’s Jinbi Garden, Ocean View real estate and other Woodland also fell into that category. The second category is the price in the middle of last year had risen from the market, such as the Discovery Bay Haizhu District Court, Kras Garden, Baiyun District, Fuli Peninsula Garden. Now, if the owners fail to make a certain amount of price concessions, transactions more difficult.

In addition, the table has not included a number of small, luxury flat disk, the peak of its turnover is also very small, falling market turnover less or even zero transaction that may arise, such as the Riverside East, Zhujiang New City, such as luxury. Some analysts believe that luxury disc anti-risk ability, but a reflection from the first-line brokers, home buyers and sellers on prices bite more death, basically can not find a compromise point, so turnover is very difficult.

entered in March, traded a certain pick-up pick-up in some of the major focus in the price of disk, but also for the owner-occupied buyers disk access.

voice

buyers and sellers to price how much?

intermediary distance about 10%

the current second-hand housing transactions difficult mainly because of the wait-and-see buyers and sellers, both coming on the market the trend is expected to different assessments of the value of the property also appeared in relatively large differences. Reporters from the major first-line intermediary line managers understand that the Department, despite the different sections of property buyers and sellers of different psychological price varies, but generally run at around 10%. Tianhe District, an intermediary company manager, in the village of plate members, one million -200 million of property, the buyer will normally be a counter-offer 100,000 -20 million, but owners can only accept a maximum of 50,000 million -10 The price cut; one million yuan within the property, about 20,000 in the price of space between -5 million.

At the same time, an intermediary company who have been mentioned by the New Deal一手房the impact of second-hand housing is affected by一手房. With several well-known real estate prices on the periphery of the impact of a large second-hand housing. For example, R & F Riverside East Jubilee Garden, before一手房prices from 18,000 yuan / square meter fell to 13,000 yuan / square meters, is basically given the surrounding second-hand housing set the upper limit. Another example Vanke Golden Lai Court flats, originally surrounding the second-hand housing is already more than 13,000 yuan / square meters, and now even一手房only sell 13,000 yuan / sq m, second-hand housing prices if business as usual, it is simply impossible to sell. All home buyers from the rich data also showed that 30,000 more than the city awarded to the lowest -10 million bamboo plate especially favored by the market, turnover is faster.

buyers accept the property early last year

first time home buyers Miss Yan watched quite a few years later in a house, she said years later, the source disk indeed more than a relatively large range of choice for the purchase decision-making time will be relatively long. As for prices, she believes that in addition to doing the horizontal comparison of similar properties, but also do the longitudinal comparison. “But it seems not, as most of the rumor about the drop so much, in fact, Canton is now second-hand housing prices or the挺高. If we can砍到the beginning of last year’s prices, I am more able to accept. Because I am a first time home buyers but also for self-occupation, if the houses are really in the scope can withstand, but also all aspects of the conditions better than that, basically would not deliberately go砍价. “

sellers can not make a profit

Chen two years after the release to sell the property, talking about a counter-offer the buyer that he was very says: “The market has given buyers a space to talk about price, they tend to be very far off the requirements of the house a few hundred thousand dollars, they十万十万to cut, how could accept it? “Mr. Chen to buy the property early, even if the price十万八万element can still make money, but for many in the last year, when the higher price to buy the house, more than 200,000 yuan if the price will be a loss, so the house it is very difficult to contract. Mr. Chen said: “In fact, we very clearly the present situation, the less can earn, but can not make a profit, lower than the cost price we will not sell. “

expert opinion

” property prices next year may continue to shock “

“Volume shrinkage in property prices can be drawn conclusions will continue to adjust, but the adjustment does not mean crash. “

Zhou Feng (full house research department manager):

2 month contract in the doldrums, the first is the impact of the Spring Festival. At the same time, property prices remain high, and therefore rely on the mortgage loans will inevitably add weight, and excessive bank lending in January too, resulting in Mar of more stringent credit approval. Of course, until the property market downturn caused by the continuity of the situation, but also an important reason.

Theoretically speaking, the higher the property value, the lower reception. And take fewer people, the price will be adjusted. Therefore, the volume shrinkage can be drawn in property prices will continue to adjust conclusions.

However, the adjustment does not mean prices will drop in property prices. For the subjective wishes of the owners are unwilling to sell loss-making, many owners are willing to pay all the tax, which is equivalent to have already made concessions, but if they give a price to sell loss-making more difficult, the more to fall , the greater the strength of a rebound.

Therefore, the trend of property prices in the coming year is likely to be shocks. No one room, purchase, owners drop prices a little, there are buyers out of the market demand for owner-occupied, more spectators, traded warmer, and the owner has a tough mentality, and the price to come back. In this way the two sides back and forth in the see-saw and the battle of.

“efforts to influence the implementation of the protection of housing prices”

“If the protection of housing policy implementation has been strong, due to supply rapid increase in house prices after 2009 will be significantly degrade. “

Sun Jianping (analyst at Guotai Junan):

2007 National house prices rose 15 percent on average in excess of 2005-2006 the average monthly increase of 2.4 percentage points since August 2007 since the price increase on more than 15%, far in excess of GDP growth and population growth rate of disposable income. This shows that such rapid increases in housing prices unsustainable, that is, house prices will fall up.

corresponding, real estate sales in 2007 the average monthly growth rate as high as 46 percent, more than 21 percentage points in 2006, since July 2007 on the growth rate has more than 40%. Although the real estate industry will be in a long-term economy, but a short period of up to 40% of sales growth will be hard to maintain, so this will be difficult to maintain the first volume to reflect atrophy.

for the future, the property market there is a need attention Canton limit Housing projects on the impact of house prices and turnover, as well as follow-up to limit the Government’s housing development plans. The institutional reform, the Ministry of Construction of housing and urban and rural areas changed to the Ministry of Construction, will have primary responsibility for housing and market management and urban planning, infrastructure and construction market management. And major cities nationwide release housing construction plan in 2008 shows that in 2008 new housing land to protect the residential area of the total area for about 20% of new housing starts to protect the area proportion of the total housing area generally -35% 20% between the protection of land and new housing starts compared to 2007 the average annual area have increased significantly.

If the protection of a strong housing policy implementation, due to a rapid increase in supply, prices after 2009 will be significantly degrade the real estate prices and turnover will be affected. Therefore, we propose that the protection of great concern to the implementation of housing supply efforts.

Chinese version:拉锯战：中介双方价差10% 买家只认去年初楼价

买家观望,业主也比较强硬,因此一场拉锯战开始了。漫画/邝飚

中介预计双方价差约10%,部分买家只能接受去年初楼价

市场扫描

各自坚持 买卖双方互不相让

9·27房贷新政、数百套限价房推出，加上国家一系列紧缩性政策信号，令一路狂奔的楼市急刹车。根据一线经纪反映，多数业主心态从去年10月份的有些焦虑到现在进入观望。而买方受整体氛围影响，也处于一种观望待降的情况。

双方的僵持造成了二手房成交量大幅下降。市场观望，最受伤的恐怕是中介公司，去年12月底伴随着各地几大中介行的倒闭、卷款以及全线收缩，广州不少小中介面临关门的命运，而大中介也不得不调整发展策略，中介的寒冬如期而至。

[盘源]投资客撤场盘源大增

去年10月份，二手楼市开始出现“一多三少”（放盘多、反价少、买家少、成交少）的局面。据经纪人反映，投资客集中的板块，如珠江新城、洛溪等板块受影响{zd0}。随着投资客撤离，成交量下滑，普遍下跌一至两成，部分下跌三成左右，个别甚至下跌50%之多。此前的投资客也加快将手中的物业抛出，盘源明显增多。

进入11、12月份，楼市观望气氛更加浓厚，买家接盘速度减慢。当时有不少盘源经过了八九月份{df}期的反价，到11月份即使降价也依然无法出手。

2008年农历新年后，市场上的盘源量平均增幅达到5%左右，部分热点板块甚至达到20%-30%.市场看客增多，但是实际成交量未能回升，买卖双方的观望情绪有增无减。

近年楼市的疯狂，很大一部分原因在于投资客的短炒行为。一些经纪人回顾，番禺某大盘一个组团已经有10多年楼龄，但是80%的房产证都不过5年，业主早已换过三四个，甚至更多。而且大部分换手就发生在这几年内。到了2007年，楼价迅速蹿高，有能力接盘的多数是投资客或者多次置业者，房贷新政有效地抑制了这部分人的购房行为。同时也逼出了投资客手中掌握的大量盘源，从而出现供给大增的局面。

[中介]行业洗牌监管力度加大

中介在去年底至今的市场冷淡中经历了一次严厉和沉痛的教训。去年11月份，二手房成交量开始下降，大中介行停止扩张脚步，小中介行艰难度日。深圳中天卷款等负面事件雪上加霜，行业遭遇了前所未有的诚信危机。而年初创辉事件再次质疑中介行业发展规律和发展模式，同时将行业监管力度推向前台。

中介行业是一个准入门槛低、劳动力密集的行业，其行业规模随着楼市的膨胀而膨胀，也许很多人都留意到，去年中期，全市每一条街每一个角落都能见到中介公司的身影，其中有大行的分支机构，也有许多类似“夫妻店”的小店，只要挂个牌就从事着中介服务工作。然而一旦形势逆转，关店、坑蒙拐骗等事情不断上演。

经历了半年“煎熬”，中介行业该反思该完善的地方很多，事实上目前政府主管部门和大中介行的管理层都意识到了。从1月份的禁止中介代收代管二手房交易资金到新的《广州市房地产中介服务管理规定》出台，政府主管部门的决心很大。

[买家]主动权在握观望再观望

买卖双方的心态总是随着市场好坏交替而转换。市道好的时候，主动权掌握在业主手里，他们骄傲地主宰着买方的心情，加上中介煽风点火，当时许多买家买房的{zd0}理由是担心楼价再涨自己买不起了。市道坏的时候，局面乾坤大挪移，去年11月和12月是短线投资者最焦虑的时候，当时有不少业主在自己的物业放出数日无人问津时，三天两头打电话给中介询问形势。

进入新年，市场似乎有一种尘埃落定的感觉，该卖的卖了，卖不掉的也不急着卖。对于许多“不着急用钱”的业主来说，房子依然是最保值的产品，而且股市的不确定性也使部分投资资金重新回到楼市。于是业主心态又回归强硬，不过放盘价格随着市场变化会有小幅调整。而买家则在这一场拉锯战中蓄积着力量，掌握了主动权，买家还价现象愈演愈烈。

合富置业专业人士认为，目前能否客观地评估物业价值是业主是否能及时、顺利将物业卖出的关键，这促使目前业主不再盲目地坚持虚高的放盘价。而买家的挑选范围大了，议价空间也有所增大，买方市场心态自然也就强硬了，买家压价的现象反而增多了，压价幅度也有所增大，但买卖双方在心理价位上认知不一致，导致双方对目标价格的预期出现差距。

●解读

大盘成交量平均降幅超过1/3

调查结果显示，越秀区和荔湾区楼盘的成交比较稳定，而以往成交比较畅旺的天河区、番禺洛溪华南板块、海珠新港西和工业大道板块、白云区等一些中大型楼盘成交下滑幅度较大。

表中楼盘大致可以分为两类，一类是大盘，旺市时成交量非常大，遭遇淡市，即使下降，也仍可能是全市成交最活跃的楼盘，如洛溪和华南板块的祈福新邨、丽江花园、广州碧桂园等。根据附近中介反映，近段时间这些楼盘的成交量平均降幅在1/3以上。除了番禺之外，海珠的金碧花园、逸景翠园等楼盘也属于这一类型。第二类便是价格在去年中涨到了脱离市场的程度，如海珠区的愉景雅苑、嘉仕花园，白云区的富力半岛花园等。而如今，如果业主不作一定的价格让步，成交比较困难。

此外，表中未收录的一些小盘、豪宅盘，其在高峰期的成交量也非常少，淡市中的成交更少，甚至可能出现零成交，如滨江东、珠江新城豪宅等。有分析人士认为，豪宅盘抗风险能力强，但是来自一线经纪的反映，豪宅的买卖双方对价格咬得更死，基本上找不到折中点，因此成交非常困难。

进入3月，成交有一定回升，回升部分主要集中在中价盘，而且多为自住买家接盘。

声音

买卖双方价差有多大？

中介 距离10%左右

造成目前二手房成交困难的主要原因在于买卖双方的观望，两者对市场未来的走势预期不同，对物业的价值评估也出现了比较大的分歧。记者从各大中介行一线经理人处了解到，尽管不同板块不同物业买卖双方的心理价差不一，但是笼统来说在10%左右。某中介公司天河区经理介绍，在员村板块，100万-200万元之间的物业，买家一般会还价10万-20万元左右，但是业主最多只能接受5万-10万元的降价幅度；100万元以内的物业，谈价空间在2万-5万元之间。

与此同时，中介公司人士纷纷提到，一手房受新政影响，二手房则受一手房影响。随着几大知名楼盘降价，对周边的二手房冲击很大。例如滨江东的富力银禧花园，一手房价格从之前的18000元/平方米降到了13000元/平方米，基本上就给周边二手房设定了上限。再如万科金色荔苑等楼盘，本来周边的二手房早已超过了13000元/平方米，而现在一手房尚且只卖13000元/平方米，二手房如果照旧定价，根本不可能卖掉。来自合富置业的数据也显示，比市价低3万-10万元的笋盘尤其受市场青睐，成交速度较快。

买家 接受去年初的楼价

首次置业者严小姐在年后看了不少房子，她说年后盘源确实多了，可选择的范围比较大，作购买决策的时间也会比较长。至于价格，她认为除了做横向同类物业比较外，还会做纵向的比较。“但是大多数好像并未如外界传闻降得那么多，其实现在广州二手房的价格还是挺高的。如果能够砍到去年初的价格，我比较能够接受。因为我是首次置业，而且用于自住，如果房子真的在可承受范围内，而且各方面条件都比较好，基本上不会刻意去砍价。”

卖家 可以少赚不能不赚

陈先生年后放卖两套物业，说起买家还价，他非常无奈地说：“市场给了买家一个谈价空间，他们往往会提出非常离谱的要求，几十万元的房子，他们十万十万地砍，怎么可能接受呢？”陈先生的物业买得早，即使降价十万八万元依然可以赚钱，但是对于许多在去年较高…