作为一个整体国内造纸市场仍然略低于政策的需求较大，原材料价格，如多因素下，分不同类型的影响，产品价格不同的变化。我们预计，随着未来行业整合加速，从3000多家企业目前的水平下跌国内造纸行业的显着提高产业集中度，淘汰落后生产能力将使造纸工业流程，提高毛利率，行业{lx1}的市场提高造纸工业的市场份额构成一个更大的好。给整个行业，“希望”的评级。

原材料价格上涨

木材在一定程度上也是稀缺资源。近年来，中国的日益强大的木材需求，木材进口量逐年增加。自2006年以来，中国原木进口，价格继续上升。 2007年9月，进口了27.9亿立方米的木材，从上月的下滑幅度为3.1％，达到141.77美元，平均每立方米美元，价格上涨0.4％。

至2007年10月底，美国市场针叶浆报价达83美元/吨，比前一个月的近10美元，美国每吨年底，在欧洲市场的报价五百八十三点七二欧元/吨，在年底上月继续下降，每吨六点六九欧元。美国阔叶纸浆市场行情749.26美元/吨，比前一个月在29.26美元每吨，或约4％年底，在欧洲市场的报价五百二十点九零欧元/吨，上涨8.71欧元，达到了比上月末。

2007年以来10年，美国花费了更大幅度的上升，主要品种，其中，美国11日和8日达成的价格从时间上一六三一元/吨，1570元/吨，1吨本月继续上涨31元和70元。废物在欧洲的主要品种也略有上升，其中第5条上涨38元/吨，价格达到较上月一四七八元/吨; ± 2上涨18美分/吨，价格达到一千三百四十八元/吨。国内废物天物种的主要需求有不同的价格范围，其中用了11天，并于8日的平均价格较上月分别60及六九元上升/吨，价格达到1500元/吨一五零九元/吨。产品价格变动

不同

2007年以来10年，国内新闻纸价格与9月持平，平均价格四千七元/吨的水平。进口新闻纸价格的平均价格在4800元没有大的变化/吨。由于国内新闻纸价格的{zh1}一轮，逐步减少在国内和国外的新闻纸价格。接下来的几个月，预计过度新闻纸市场供求状况不会改变，毛利率仍在低水平徘徊，成本推动价格上涨仍然比较困难。

票据市场连续高温国内文化，书籍纸和双面胶版纸价格继续上升。它的中，低文化，纸书纸平均指数上涨100元/吨，到4900元/吨。预计未来供应市场仍然偏紧几个月，价格将继续上升。

铜版纸市场情况分析之前，我们认为在未来的涂布纸供应过剩几个月将会减少，但对市场供过于求的情况将继续下去。在10月价格的铜版纸进口和国产局势发生急剧下降。其中，进口铜版纸下跌三百四十○元/吨，回到9月初的水平，国内铜版纸平均价格指数下跌六六三元/吨，甚至低于前{zh1}一轮价格上涨的水平。

和瓦楞纸，10月份箱板纸，箱板纸较上月一直是进口略有下降和国内瓦楞纸价格上升50元/吨，分别为2550元/吨和2300元/吨。白卡纸的国内市场也仍然良好，产品价格50元/吨，每吨已达7050元。白色的价格80元/吨，进口产品主导，国内纸张价格，每吨达4400元。

产业集中度的政策指导

2007年31日10年国家发展和改革委员会发布的“造纸行业发展政策”指出，中国将优化产业布局，原料结构，产品结构和企业结构，加大创新力度，转变增长方式，为旅游业确立明确的准入，建立林纸业结合先进的工业设备，节能环保，在一个有序的现代造纸和造纸工业可持续发展的竞争。

我们认为，这对上市公司的贸易政策将更加注重对如何整合上游和下游的改进，而不是依赖于一个简单的价格战和自己的长远竞争力的角度来看规模扩张来实现市场份额的提升，因此，企业对收益将超过重要性程度非常重视对企业的价值范围内的规模，预计再上一个新的水平。其次，随着工业的迅速提高浓度，强恒强的局面将得到进一步加强，主要投资公司依然存在，是{zj0}的选择。

“节能减排”的对企业的承受能力可持续发展的紧迫性逐渐增加。在政策和法规的规定，中国将大力推进清洁生产技术，纸浆和造纸废水排放许可证，执行国家和地方排放标准和污染物排放总量控制指标的管理和严格的执行。纸林基地建设的重点应该是生态保护。目前，中国实施了“节能减排”进行以下化工生产植物秸秆和污水能力超过六百五十〇点○○万吨3.4万吨产量。这项政策的实施将有助于行业和企业的健康和长远发展。

“政策”也明确表示支持通过兼并，联合，重组和扩大国内企业的形式，在10个左右有1000000-3000000吨纸浆和造纸企业，若干家先进水平的发展超过3万吨年生产能力跨区域，跨部门，跨所有制，与大型纸浆和造纸企业集团的国际竞争力。到2010年，新的能力二千六百五十○点〇万吨纸及纸板生产，淘汰落后现有的650万吨，有效产能能力达到九千点零零零万吨。对于现有大量的纸张发展规模的潜力，使企业，政府的支持，做大做强的时间来的政策支持。行业整合将逐步提高价格竞争现状，促进整个行业有序竞争，从而提高行业的运作效率。

我们期望产业结构将是“南北”布局，林业，纸浆和造纸公司逐渐升温，资源争夺将加剧。造纸工业应充分考虑纤维资源，水资源，环境容量，市场需求，运输和其他条件比较优势，努力布局合理的资源配置，协调发展和环境。工业发展的总体布局应“由北向南”调整，南方长江是纸的发展，在关键领域作出产业。 “政策”还鼓励现有林场及林业公司与国内公司建立纸浆和纸张造纸原料林基地。到2010年，努力实现使林基地五百点零零万公顷，一个新的纸浆645.0万吨的目标纸生产能力建设。我们认为，资源争夺战争的前奏，竹子和其他非木材资源将探讨更多地利用，森林资源的价值将进一步增强。如果多管齐下逐步缓解原材料瓶颈，对整个行业的可持续发展能力将获得提升。

改善贸易准入的壁垒，实现规模工业经济。 “政策新文件”决策到国内和国外的技能投资主体工业，金融实力，信誉和发展规划，以及新的制浆生产线项目，扩大清单提出了具体的初始大小要求。同时，在COD排放量，水和能源的消费量万吨的新项目等，必须符合先进水平。造纸工业是资金技术密集，规模特色，贸易壁垒显着的经济，改善行业准入，以实现规模经济将有助于改善行业效率。

防止行业垄断。 “政策”提供了一个单一的企业（集团）的超过35％的国内市场占有率单一文件，批准或建设项目的备案文件类型没有进一步的应用，单个企业（集团占纸和纸板）生产容量比总消耗量的20％的国内市场，批准或者备案制浆造纸项目没有进一步的应用。目前已形成垄断可能是在涂布纸主要有金东，玖龙和李箱纸板的人。这类企业在大文件，或发展战略的种类将调整根据本规定。华泰新闻纸现时的20％的市场份额，是有百分之七十的余地。

Paper should focus on solving the industry realize the price problem

Domestic paper market as a whole is still slightly larger than the demand for policy, prices of raw materials such as multi-factor under the influence of various types of sub-product prices varied Change. We expect that with the acceleration of future industry consolidation, the domestic paper industry from the current level of more than 3,000 enterprises decreased significantly improve industry concentration and eliminate backward production capacity will bring the process of paper industry to enhance gross profit margins, industry leading market improve market share of paper industry constitute a larger good. Give the entire industry, “promising” rating.

rising raw material prices

wood to some extent also of scarce resources. In recent years, China’s increasingly strong demand for timber, lumber import volume increased year by year. Since 2006, China’s imports of logs, the price continued to rise. September 2007, import volume of 27.9 billion cubic meters of timber, from the previous month fell by 3.1%; average reached 141.77 U.S. dollars per cubic meter, prices rose 0.4%.

to the end of October 2007, the United States market quotation coniferous pulp reached 830 U.S. dollars / ton, up from the previous month at the end near 10 U.S. dollars per ton; the European market quotation 583.72 euros / tonne, at the end of the previous month continued to decline 6.69 per ton euro. American broadleaf pulp market quotation 749.26 U.S. dollars / ton, up from the previous month at the end of 29.26 U.S. dollars per ton, or about 4%; the European market quotation 520.90 euros / ton, up 8.71 euros at the end of the previous month.

2007 since 10 years, the United States has spent more substantial main varieties of rose, of which, the U.S. spent on the 11th and on the 8th the price reached 1631 yuan / ton, 1570 yuan / ton, a ton from the previous month continue to rise 31 yuan and 70 yuan. The main varieties of waste in Europe also rose slightly, in which A5 rose 38 yuan / ton, the price reached 1478 yuan / ton; A2 from the previous month rose 18 per / ton, the price reached 1348 yuan / ton. The main demand of domestic waste day species have different ranges of prices, which spent on the 11th day and on the 8th the average price rose from the previous month, respectively, 60 and 69 yuan / ton, the price reached 1,500 yuan / ton and 1509 yuan / ton. Product Price Change

different

2007 since 10 years, the domestic newsprint prices flat in September with the average price remained at 4700 yuan / ton level. Import newsprint prices no big changes in average price in 4800 yuan / tons. Since the last round of domestic newsprint prices, gradually reduce the price of newsprint at home and abroad. The next few months is expected to over-supply of newsprint market situation will not change, gross margin is still low-level hovering, cost-push price increases are still more difficult.

paper market and the domestic culture of continuous high temperature, books paper and two-sided offset paper prices continue to rise. Its middle and low culture that is paper books paper average rose 100 yuan / ton, to 4900 yuan / ton. Is expected to supply the next few months the market will remain tight, prices will continue to rise.

coated paper based on market conditions prior to analysis, we consider the next few months the excess supply of coated paper will be reduced, but an oversupply of the market situation will continue. Prices in October were coated paper imports and domestically produced a sharp drop in the situation. Among them, the imports of coated paper fell 340 yuan / ton to return to the level of early September; domestic coated paper average fell 663 yuan / ton, or even lower than the level before the last round of price increases.

and corrugated for Liner Board, Liner Board in October from the previous month has been a slight decline in imports and domestic corrugated prices to increase by 50 yuan / ton, respectively, 2550 yuan / ton and 2,300 yuan / ton. White cardboard domestic market also remains good, the product price 50 yuan / ton, reached 7050 yuan per ton. White paper in the domestic price of imported products, led by price 80 yuan / ton, reached 4400 yuan per ton.

industrial concentration policy guidance

2007 on 31 day 10 years National Development and Reform Commission issued “paper industry development policy,” pointed out, China will optimize the industrial layout, raw material structure, product structure and enterprise structure, increase innovation, change the mode of growth, clear access for industry, building林纸业combining advanced industry equipment, energy saving and environmental protection, competition in an orderly and sustainable development of the modern paper-making industry.

We believe that this policy on the trade of listed companies will pay more attention to how the integration of upstream and downstream from the point of view of improving the long-term competitiveness of their own rather than rely on a simple price war and the expansion of scale to achieve market share upgrade, therefore, business-to-benefits will exceed the degree of importance attached great importance to the scale of the extent of the value of enterprises is expected to go onto a new level. Second, with the industry to enhance the rapid concentration, the strong恒强the situation will be further strengthened, leading investment firms are still existing is the best option.

“energy-saving emission reduction,” the urgency of the sustainable development of the capacity of enterprises increased gradually. In accordance with policies and regulations, China will vigorously promote cleaner production technology, pulp and paper wastewater discharge permit to implement management and strict implementation of national and local emission standards and indicators of total amount control of pollutants. Paper forest base construction should be focused on ecological protection. At present, China has implemented a “energy-saving emission reduction,” an annual output of 34,000 tons out of the following chemical production plant straw and sewage capacity exceeding 6.5 million tons. The implementation of this policy will contribute to industry and enterprise health and long-term development.

“policy” is also clear that support for domestic enterprises through mergers, joint, restructuring and expansion of the form, the development of 10 or so 1000000-3000000 t have the advanced level of pulp and paper enterprises, the development of several home for more than three million tons annual production capacity of trans-regional, inter-departmental, cross-ownership, with the international competitiveness of the large pulp and paper enterprise groups. By 2010, new capacity 26.5 million tons paper and paperboard and eliminate backward production capacity of existing 6.5 million tons, the effective production capacity reached 90,000,000 tons. For existing large-scale potential for development of paper-making companies, to government policy support for the backing, bigger and stronger the time was coming. Industry consolidation will gradually improve the current situation of price competition, and promote the industry as a whole orderly competition, thereby enhancing the operational efficiency of the industry.

We expect that the industrial structure will be “north to south,” the layout, forestry pulp and paper companies gradually warming up, scramble for resources will be intensified. Paper-making industry should give full consideration to the layout of fiber resources, water resources, environmental capacity, market demand, transportation and other conditions of comparative advantages and strive to a reasonable allocation of resources, coordinated development and the environment. The overall layout of industrial development should be “north to south” adjust, south of the Yangtze River are the development of paper-making industry in key areas. “Policy” also encourages the existing tree farms and forestry companies and domestic companies to build pulp and paper paper-making raw material forest base. By 2010, strive to realize the construction of paper making forest bases five million hectares, a new pulp production capacity of 6,450,000 tons of goals. We believe that the scramble for resources prelude to war, bamboo and other non-wood resources will be explored more use, the value of forest resources will be further enhanced. If a multi-pronged approach to gradually ease the bottleneck of raw materials, the sustainable development of the industry as a whole will gain the ability to upgrade.

improve trade access barriers, realize economies of scale industries. “Policy” of the new paper-making industry into the main body of domestic and foreign investment in skills, financial strength, credibility and development planning, as well as new, expanded list of projects pulping production lines have raised the initial size of the specific requirements. At the same time, tons of new projects in the COD emissions, quantity of water and energy consumption, etc. must meet the advanced level. Paper industries are capital-and technology-intensive, significant economies of scale characteristics, trade barriers, improve access for industry to achieve economies of scale will help to improve industry efficiency.

to prevent industrial monopolies. “Policy” provides a single enterprise (group) a single paper of the domestic market share of over 35%, no further applications for approval or filing of the paper types of construction projects; a single enterprise (group) of total paper and paperboard production capacity of the domestic market than the total consumption 20%, no further applications for approval or record pulp and paper projects. Currently has a monopoly may be the principal of the coated paper has Jindong, Nine Dragons and Lee & Man of Liner Board. Such enterprises in a big paper or the kinds of development strategies will be adjusted under this provision. Huatai newsprint current market share of 20%, there is room for 70 percent. (07-11-20)