造纸工业协会秘书长赵委在最近举行的造纸行业形势分析会上说，对容量的需求和消费者满意的外贸出口市场的不确定性加剧状况，能源，造成摩擦形势中的不确定储蓄增长对工业排放减少结构调整的不确定性，造纸行业目前面临的三大问题。

扩张来增加库存

“产成品库存上升百分之十三，这种新现象提醒我们注意。”赵说。

自2005年以来，造纸行业的产能迅速扩张，一些大型企业纷纷在2006年推出新的造纸机，100万超高纸达到7吨的生产能力。市场需求也没有与产能同步跟上。数据显示，2006年新产能达到{zg}，今年新产能是15％，增长一直比去年弱。

因此，目前没有迫切的能力，从一开始消化在2006年积累，今年是{dy}次在存货。

赵指出，产成品库存增加纸张价格将进一步削弱议价能力。去年以来，新闻纸降低到{zd1}点，获得了上游原料由纸张成本上升的动力的前提下，企业的更大的损害。

赵圩，预计可突破整个七五零零零零零零吨，增长10％，年产量增加;及表观消费量为七千一百点○万吨有5％的增长，它有更大的过剩生产能力。纸专家

郭永新指出，过剩的能力，处理的方式之一是加强出口产品的国外市场，以减轻国内市场压力。此外，应考虑采用柔性生产措施，这是他们选择投资具有适应性机，多品种时，过剩的问题的某些文件类型，市场低迷，可能会考虑将其他类型的纸张。照威

认为在全球化的市场环境，国内市场只是一小部分。考虑到整体市场的快速增长，国内库存只是一种暂时的过剩生产能力提高，开拓国际市场的需求，国内企业是{wy}的出路。

出口摩擦加剧，

虽然在回应供大于求的国内市场形势，企业已主动开拓国际市场，但不断增加的贸易摩擦，低费用的出路充分利用价格战在荆棘。今年，有铜版纸，热敏纸，牛皮纸三个美国，韩国和其他国家的物种将遭到xx，采取的手段，包括反倾销，反补贴和反市场的破坏，许多其他的名字。

数据显示，前三季度，中国进口的高水平的四分之一由纸和纸制品出口增长点二五。 1至9月，总进口三百一十三万五千二百吨，增长7.1中的331万吨，下降百分之出口，接近去年的出口总额增长41％。

“今年底，（纸首次出口）超过进口，这意味着造纸行业的许多年的供应量’，’收紧情况’不断变化的需求。”赵说。他提醒纸业公司，要警惕海外市场，越来越多的针对中国的贸易摩擦纸率。

“企业应准备做好积极响应。”据赵维介绍这个中国的铜版纸年美国反倾销，反补贴调查，晨鸣纸业（13.46,0.35,2.67％）和金光APP纸业企业的涉案者。晨鸣作为被告被定罪，结果放弃了美国高达99％的反倾销税率;和APP积极应对，只有9.2％的税率。

据北京国际贸易律师事务所律师章仁嘉润园介绍，由于美国不承认中国的市场经济地位，因此在反倾销调查，选定的第三国生产成本远远低于中国，按高这里的惩罚必然设置率非常高。如果企业准备参加答辩积极提供各种财务记录来证明，在与市场经济地位线生产，你可以得到一个较低的税率。

结构调整的阵痛中
在发展经济运行局的分析和改革委员会
指出，中国的造纸工业是资源消耗，一个是造纸工业的未来{zd0}的行业有能源面临节能排放量减少结构调整的主线。赵指出，这意味着并购或重组的高潮的到来。

主要污染物排放量集中在中的主要化学变化，{dy}个链接文件。到目前为止，今年推出了纸浆应对环境政策，包括过时的技术和草本制浆造纸生产线，淘汰系列，小造纸企业赶出市场。

数据显示，前9月，纸浆产量15790000吨，同比增长15个百分点，整顿，关停小型制浆企业1562。

赵说，根据节能减排的政策，除了小型浆厂的关闭，{zd0}的结构调整是，产能规模约由并购重组。

以前的“造纸行业产业政策发表了”明确提出要鼓励国内企业进行跨地区，跨部门，跨部门，跨所有制兼并重组，努力培养年产5-10家能力超过300万吨，具有专业化和大型企业集团的国际竞争力的特点。

“重组合并将使公司有机会做大做强，也必然会带来调整的阵痛。”他说。

Paper three problems

Paper Industry Association Secretary-General Zhao Wei At the recent situation analysis paper industry conference that the demand for capacity and the growth of consumer satisfaction with the uncertainty of the situation of foreign trade friction caused by the export market conditions exacerbated by uncertainty, energy-saving emission reduction on the industrial structure adjust the uncertainty, the paper industry are currently facing three major issues.

expansion to increase inventory

“finished goods inventory rose 13 percent, this new phenomenon to our attention.” Zhao noted.

since 2005, paper industry the rapid expansion of production capacity, some large enterprises successively launched new paper machine in 2006, annual production capacity of one million tons of paper ultra high reach 7. Market demand and there is no synchronization with the production capacity to keep up with. Data show that new capacity in 2006 reached its highest this year, new capacity is 15%, growth has been weaker than last year.

Therefore, there is no immediate capacity to digest from the start to accumulate in 2006, this year marked the first time in inventory.

Zhao pointed out that the finished goods inventory to increase paper prices will further weaken the bargaining power. Since last year, newsprint reduced to the lowest point, which gained impetus in the upstream raw material cost increases under the premise of the paper-making enterprises greater damage.

Zhao Wei is expected to be able to break through the entire annual output of 75,000,000 tons, an increase of 10%; and apparent consumption amounted to 71,000,000 tons, an increase of 5%, it has a larger surplus production capacity. Paper experts

Yong-Xin Guo pointed out that the excess capacity to deal with one of the ways is to strengthen the export products to foreign markets to ease the pressure on the domestic market. In addition, it should consider adopting flexible production measure, that is their choice of investments has more varieties of adaptive machine, when a certain paper types with the problem of surplus, the market downturn, may consider converting other kinds of paper. Zhao Wei

think, in a globalized market environment, the domestic market is only one small part. Taking into account the overall global market growth, the domestic inventory is only a temporary increase in surplus production capacity and to open up international market demand, domestic enterprises are the only way out.

exports increased friction

Although in response to the domestic market situation of supply exceeding demand, businesses have taken the initiative to explore the international market, but the ever-increasing trade friction, the use of low-cost way out price war full of thorns. This year, there are coated paper, thermal paper, kraft paper three species in the United States, South Korea and other countries to be resisted, to take the means, including anti-dumping, countervailing and anti-market damage, and many other names.

data show that the first three quarters, China’s imports of high-level quarter-by-paper, and paper products exports increased quarter by quarter. January to September, total imports of 3,135,200 tons, up 7.1 percent decline in the total export of 3.31 million tons, close to last year’s total export volume, up 41%.

“the end of this year, (paper) for the first time exports exceeded imports, which means that the paper industry continued for many years’ supply ‘,’ needs tightening ‘of the situation to change.” Zhao noted. He reminded the paper companies, to be alert to overseas markets, more and more paper rate against China’s trade friction.

“enterprises should prepare to do a good job responding positively.” According to Zhao Wei introduction this year of China’s coated paper for the United States anti-dumping, countervailing investigation, Chenming Paper (13.46,0.35,2.67% ) and APP Paper Jinguang enterprises are involved in the case. Chenming abandoned as a result of the respondent was convicted of the United States as much as 99% of the anti-dumping tax rate; and APP actively respond, only 9.2% tax rate.

According to the Beijing International Trade Law Firm嘉润lawyer Zhang Ren Park introduction, because the United States does not recognize China’s market economy status, so in anti-dumping investigations, the selected third-country production costs far higher than China, click here punishment is bound to set a very high rate. If the business ready to participate actively in the respondent to provide a variety of financial records to prove that production in line with the market economy status, you can get a lower tax rate.

the throes of structural adjustment

in the analysis at the Economic Operations Bureau Development and Reform Commission pointed out that China’s paper industry is the consumption of resources, one of the largest industry for the future of paper industry is faced with Energy-saving emission reduction to the main line of structural adjustment. Zhao pointed out that this means that the reorganization of mergers and acquisitions or the arrival of the climax.

paper mainly focused on the emissions of pollutants by chemical changes in the first link in the main. So far this year introduced a series of pulp response to environmental policies, including the elimination of outdated technology and herbal Pulp Pulp production lines, small pulp out of business.

data show that before September, paper pulp production was 15,790,000 tons, up 15 percent lower, rectifying, shutting down small-scale enterprises Pulp 1562.

Zhao said, according to energy-saving emission reduction policies, apart from small-scale pulp mill closed down, the biggest structural adjustment is that the scale of production capacity brought about by the reorganization of mergers and acquisitions.

published in the previous “paper industry industrial policy” explicitly proposes to encourage domestic enterprises to conduct cross-regional, inter-departmental, cross-sectoral, cross-ownership mergers and reorganization, and strive to cultivate an annual output of 5-10 home capacity of more than three million tons and has the characteristics of specialization and international competitiveness of large enterprise groups.

“reorganization merger will give businesses the opportunity to become bigger and stronger, but it will certainly bring the throes adjust.” he said. (07-11-20)