as early as more than a month ago, I wrote in the blog to raise the down payment is the bank to control housing prices trump card, issued after a number of the text is made up of industry opposition, that is unlikely to raise the down payment. Spontaneously in a number of city banks tightening mortgage, the Chongqing Construction Bank has finally taken the lead in the implementation of this policy.

brewing in fact the central bank raise the down payment as early as in the brewing. This round of real estate prices, the Government and the banks have this plan long ago, but the time to consider what the introduction of this package is the best. If some of the more relaxed measures will enable the property to cool slightly or be able to make it controllable, possible follow-up action will not be launched. Unfortunately, however, has been completely crazy to ignore the real estate industry the government’s determination to control real estate.

can foresee is that if measures to increase the down payment can not suppress the price, more stringent measures will be introduced gradually; the banks raise down payment, as well as residential work before the meetings to control prices weak accountability of local government, these measures to the market delivery a very clear signal that the Government will control prices increased to an unprecedented height.

the real estate industry in China, there is a misunderstanding that the real estate is a good investment products, but the fact that in most of the developed countries, not as a real estate investment products to treat other words , the majority of state and government do not want to especially residential real estate as an investment product, which the country will bring a series of social problems and economic issues. This year, the bank down raise interest rates as well as social security space policy, the introduction of the Government is aware of this problem.

Starting this month, Beijing will allocate 200 million yuan of funds for housing census, is expected to take a year and a half to two years. After the end of the housing census, in view of the Housing Authority to maintain the various aspects of tax policy will be introduced, for the son of multi-person suites, lease rental tax to be levied, and the vacancy to control tax collection, the children left the house to the levy of Estate Duty If the tax is a huge transfer of transaction income tax, real estate investment in the future of space will be greatly reduced - a sense, the ultimate goal of macroeconomic control is to protect the rights of citizens the most basic human rights of residency.

down the bank to raise the background is rather complicated. First, from our survey data, as at 6 at the end of 2006, bank mortgage loan balance plus the balance of the development of a total of 3.4 trillion to the second quarter of this year the central bank released report on the implementation of the monetary system into a 4.3 trillion a year Time up 9 billions, there is no doubt that the bank is China’s largest real estate who foot the bill. This means that should have been lending loans to other sectors not to Shanghai as an example, in August, 90 percent of new loans for real estate, other industries such as manufacturing, high-tech industries do not have bank financial support, and this lopsided development will undermine the country’s economic structure balance. Secondly, to improve down the fuse is that the United States subprime mortgage crisis. In this crisis, a large number of Chinese-funded banks suffered losses, there are keenly felt pain, they know that even the U.S. house prices will fall, not to mention China. Compared based on a rigorous examination system for credit rating on Bank of America real estate loans, China’s banking sector in order to seize the mortgage cake, a great relaxation of the loan credit review. From our contact with the large number of investors and customers, the one-time in Beijing to buy more than a dozen suites, in different units in different proof of income opened, some not legitimate career or is the real estate expertise, and open up proof of income, a precedent is 40,000, 50,000 of abound. If the bank to stringent scrutiny, these people simply can not cross the border, but in the end of the loan banks do. In other words, before the Bank of China credit in the credit review system is a very relaxed, and even that is turning a blind eye. It can be said that if the credit system in accordance with U.S. standards, China is now buyers who have at least half of those sub-credit. I believe that if Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities strictly enforce the examination conditions, it is estimated that people who apply for loans are now sure that half of the people过不了关, so China’s banking sector there is a huge sub-mortgage credit guarantee is an undisputed fact. A few days ago the Ministry of Construction Bank study which has just been published reports that China will enter the high-risk mortgage default period, the entire banking industry put forward a serious warning. Third, a direct consequence of skyrocketing housing prices are doubled the risks of banks. The same suite, the price rise from one million to two million, meaning that half of the depreciation of bank funds, banks have been two million could be secured two suites, now only a loan. Therefore, the bank’s risk assessment with real estate prices is directly proportional to price the higher the greater the risks of banks. Therefore, this round of skyrocketing housing prices in many areas has been a threat to the security of the financial system, banks spontaneous request to control risk. This is also the supervision of the CBRC and the central bank repeated the reasons for this warning. Therefore, other control measures in the context of failure, the banks raised the mortgage down payment on reducing the risk of becoming the most effective means.

We need attention to improve the down payment is just a combination of regulation and control part of boxing, in addition to raise the down payment, continuing to increase interest rates to raise deposit reserve and other regulatory policies have been implemented, the future bank will also substantially to reduce the size of mortgages.

in accordance with the relevant provisions of the banks, buyers were on for a month can not exceed 50 percent of household income to Beijing’s housing prices, the four little room within a total 1.5 million below the house, in accordance with 1,500,000, down three of 45 million, on for around 8000, meaning that buyers must have household income of people in more than 16,000. At the current prices, according to a new home currently on the market of people’s income situation, I believe that Beijing may purchase two-thirds of people can not be enough this standard. So if the banks to strictly control credit review the standard, and now half of the demand will be reduced largely.

as early as more than a month ago, I wrote in the blog to raise the down payment is the bank to control housing prices trump card, issued after a number of the industry is made up of opposition to the text that is not likely to improve down. Spontaneously in a number of city banks tightening mortgage, the Chongqing Construction Bank has finally taken the lead in the implementation of this policy.

brewing in fact the central bank raise the down payment as early as in the brewing. This round of real estate prices, the Government and the banks have this plan long ago, but the time to consider what the introduction of this package is the best. If some of the more relaxed measures will enable the property to cool slightly or be able to make it controllable, possible follow-up action will not be launched. Unfortunately, however, has been completely crazy to ignore the real estate industry the government’s determination to control real estate.

can foresee is that if measures to increase the down payment can not suppress the price, more stringent measures will be introduced gradually; the banks raise down payment, as well as residential work before the meetings to control prices weak accountability of local government, these measures to the market delivery a very clear signal that the Government will control prices increased to an unprecedented height.

the real estate industry in China, there is a misunderstanding that the real estate is a good investment products, but the fact that in most of the developed countries, not as a real estate investment products to treat other words , the majority of state and government do not want to especially residential real estate as an investment product, which the country will bring a series of social problems and economic issues. This year, the bank down raise interest rates as well as social security space policy, the introduction of the Government is aware of this problem.

Starting this month, Beijing will allocate 200 million yuan of funds for housing census, is expected to take a year and a half to two years. After the end of the housing census, in view of the Housing Authority to maintain the various aspects of tax policy will be introduced, for the son of multi-person suites, lease rental tax to be levied, and the vacancy to control tax collection, the children left the house to the levy of Estate Duty If the tax is a huge transfer of transaction income tax, real estate investment in the future of space will be greatly reduced - a sense, the ultimate goal of macroeconomic control is to protect the rights of citizens the most basic human rights of residency.

down the bank to raise the background is rather complicated. First, from our survey data, as at 6 at the end of 2006, bank mortgage loan balance plus the balance of the development of a total of 3.4 trillion to the second quarter of this year the central bank released report on the implementation of the monetary system into a 4.3 trillion a year Time up 9 billions, there is no doubt that the bank is China’s largest real estate who foot the bill. This means that should have been lending loans to other sectors not to Shanghai as an example, in August, 90 percent of new loans for real estate, other industries such as manufacturing, high-tech industries do not have bank financial support, and this lopsided development will undermine the country’s economic structure balance. Secondly, to improve down the fuse is that the United States subprime mortgage crisis. In this crisis, a large number of Chinese-funded banks suffered losses, there are keenly felt pain, they know that even the U.S. house prices will fall, not to mention China. Compared based on a rigorous examination system for credit rating on Bank of America real estate loans, China’s banking sector in order to seize the mortgage cake, a great relaxation of the loan credit review. From our contact with the large number of investors and customers, the one-time in Beijing to buy more than a dozen suites, in different units in different proof of income opened, some not legitimate career or is the real estate expertise, and open up proof of income, a precedent is 40,000, 50,000 of abound. If the bank to stringent scrutiny, these people simply can not cross the border, but in the end of the loan banks do. In other words, before the Bank of China credit in the credit review system is a very relaxed, and even that is turning a blind eye. It can be said that if the credit system in accordance with U.S. standards, China is now buyers who have at least half of those sub-credit. I believe that if Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities strictly enforce the examination conditions, it is estimated that people who apply for loans are now sure that half of the people过不了关, so China’s banking sector there is a huge sub-mortgage credit guarantee is an undisputed fact. A few days ago the Ministry of Construction Bank study which has just been published reports that China will enter the high-risk mortgage default period, the entire banking industry put forward a serious warning. Third, a direct consequence of skyrocketing housing prices are doubled the risks of banks. The same suite, the price rise from one million to two million, meaning that half of the depreciation of bank funds, banks have been two million could be secured two suites, now only a loan. Therefore, the bank’s risk assessment with real estate prices is directly proportional to price the higher the greater the risks of banks. Therefore, this round of skyrocketing housing prices in many areas has been a threat to the security of the financial system, banks spontaneous request to control risk. This is also the supervision of the CBRC and the central bank repeated the reasons for this warning. Therefore, other control measures in the context of failure, the banks raised the mortgage down payment on reducing the risk of becoming the most effective means.

We need attention to improve the down payment is just a combination of regulation and control part of boxing, in addition to raise the down payment, continuing to increase interest rates to raise deposit reserve and other regulatory policies have been implemented, the future bank will also substantially to reduce the size of mortgages.

in accordance with the relevant provisions of the banks, buyers were on for a month can not exceed 50 percent of household income to Beijing’s housing prices, the four little room within a total 1.5 million below the house, in accordance with 1,500,000, down three of 45 million, on for around 8000, meaning that buyers must have household income of people in more than 16,000. At the current prices, according to a new home currently on the market of people’s income situation, I believe that Beijing may purchase two-thirds of people can not be enough this standard. So if the banks to strictly control credit review the standard, and now half of the demand will be reduced largely.

Chinese version:提高首付是对房地产业的{zh1}警告 房价不容不降

早在一个多月之前，我在博客文章中写到提高首付将是银行控制房价的杀手锏，发文之后还有不少业内人士缀文反对，认为不太可能提高首付。在多个城市银行自发紧缩房贷之后，重庆建行终于率先执行这一政策。

实际上央行酝酿提高首付早在酝酿之中了。对这轮房地产暴涨，政府和银行早就有这套预案，只是在考虑什么时机推出这套方案是{zh0}的。如果在一些比较缓和的措施出台能使房产稍微降温或者能够让它变得可控，可能后续的动作就不会推出。但遗憾的是，已经彻底疯狂的房地产行业忽视了政府调控房地产的决心。

可以预见的是，如果提高首付这个措施还不能抑制房价，更严厉的措施就将陆续出台；这次银行提高首付，以及之前住宅工作会议中提出控制房价不力将问责地方政府，这些措施给市场传递了非常明确的信号，就是政府将控制房价提高到一个前所未有的高度。

在中国房地产行业有个误区，认为房地产是很好的投资产品，但是事实上在绝大部分的发达国家，房地产并不是作为投资产品来对待，换一句话来说，大部分的国家和政府并不希望房地产尤其是住宅成为投资产品，这对国家的会带来一系列社会问题和经济问题。今年以来，银行首付提高，加息以及社会保障用房政策等的推出，说明政府已经意识到这个问题。

从这个月开始，北京市将划拨2亿元的资金用于住房普查，预计用时一年半到两年时间。在住房普查结束后，针对房屋保有环节中的各种税收政策将会陆续出台，对于多套房子的人，出租将要征收租赁税，空置要征收控制税，把房子留给孩子要征收遗产税，过户交易要征收巨额所得税，未来房地产的投资空间将会大大缩小——某种意义上，宏观调控的最终目的是保障公民人权中最基本权利的居住权。

此次银行提高首付的背景比较复杂。{dy}，从我们调查的数据，2006年截至6月末，银行房贷余额加上开发xx的余额总共是3.4万亿，到今年第二季度央行公布货币制度执行报告变成4.3万亿，一年时间涨了9千亿，毫无疑问，银行是中国房地产{zd0}的买单者。这意味着本来应该贷给其他行业的xx没有了，以上海为例，8月份，新增xx90%用于房地产，其他行业如制造业、高科技行业都没有银行资金支持了，这种畸形发展将破坏了国家经济结构的平衡。第二，提高首付的导火索就是美国次级房贷危机。在这个危机中，大量的中资银行受到损失，有切肤之痛，他们才知道原来连美国的房价都会掉，更何况中国了。相比建立在严格的信用等级审核体系上的美国银行房地产xx，中国银行业为了抢占房贷蛋糕，极大的放宽了xx的信用审查。从我们接触的大量投资客户来讲，一次性在北京买十几套房，在不同的单位开不同的收入证明，有些根本没有正当的职业或者专门就是炒房的，开出来的收入证明，一开是四万、五万的比比皆是。如果银行严格审核，这些人根本无法过关，但最终银行都办了xx。换句话说，之前中国银行在信贷的信用审核体制上是非常放松的，甚至于就是睁一只眼闭一只眼。可以说，如果按照美国信用体制标准，中国目前购房人起码有一半是次级信用者。我相信，如果北京、上海、南京等城市严格执行审核条件，估计现在申请xx的人肯定有一半的人过不了关，所以中国银行业存在巨大的次级信用者的房贷已是不争事实。日前建行研究部刚刚公布报告说中国将进入房贷违约的高风险期，对全银行业提出了严重警告。第三，房价暴涨的直接后果是银行风险倍增。同一套房，价格从100万涨价到200万，意味着银行的资金贬值一半，银行本来两百万可以抵押两套房，现在只能xx一套。所以，银行的风险跟不动产评估的价格是成正比的，房价越高，银行风险越大。因此，这一轮房价的暴涨已经在很多方面威胁到金融体系的安全，银行自发的要求要控制风险。这也是监管的银监会和央行多次发出这样的警告的原因。因此，在其他调控措施失效的背景下，银行提高房贷首付就成为降低风险的xxx手段。

我们需要注意，提高首付只是这一轮调控组合拳中的一部分，除了提高首付，持续加息、提高存款准备金等已经实施的调控政策，未来银行还将大幅缩减房贷规模。

按银行有相关规定，购房人每个月月供不能超过家庭收入50%，以北京目前的房价，四房以内几乎没有总价150万以下的房子，就按照150万，首付三成45万，月供在八千左右，也就是说购房人家庭收入必须得在一万六以上。以目前的房价，按照目前市场上新买房的人的收入情况，我相信北京购房人可能有三分之二的人够不了这个标准。所以如果银行严格把控信用审核这个标准，现在需求基本上将减一半。

早在一个多月之前，我在博客文章中写到提高首付将是银行控制房价的杀手锏，发文之后还有不少业内人士缀文反对，认为不太可能提高首付。在多个城市银行自发紧缩房贷之后，重庆建行终于率先执行这一政策。

实际上央行酝酿提高首付早在酝酿之中了。对这轮房地产暴涨，政府和银行早就有这套预案，只是在考虑什么时机推出这套方案是{zh0}的。如果在一些比较缓和的措施出台能使房产稍微降温或者能够让它变得可控，可能后续的动作就不会推出。但遗憾的是，已经彻底疯狂的房地产行业忽视了政府调控房地产的决心。

可以预见的是，如果提高首付这个措施还不能抑制房价，更严厉的措施就将陆续出台；这次银行提高首付，以及之前住宅工作会议中提出控制房价不力将问责地方政府，这些措施给市场传递了非常明确的信号，就是政府将控制房价提高到一个前所未有的高度。

在中国房地产行业有个误区，认为房地产是很好的投资产品，但是事实上在绝大部分的发达国家，房地产并不是作为投资产品来对待，换一句话来说，大部分的国家和政府并不希望房地产尤其是住宅成为投资产品，这对国家的会带来一系列社会问题和经济问题。今年以来，银行首付提高，加息以及社会保障用房政策等的推出，说明政府已经意识到这个问题。

从这个月开始，北京市将划拨2亿元的资金用于住房普查，预计用时一年半到两年时间。在住房普查结束后，针对房屋保有环节中的各种税收政策将会陆续出台，对于多套房子的人，出租将要征收租赁税，空置要征收控制税，把房子留给孩子要征收遗产税，过户交易要征收巨额所得税，未来房地产的投资空间将会大大缩小——某种意义上，宏观调控的最终目的是保障公民人权中最基本权利的居住权。

此次银行提高首付的背景比较复杂。{dy}，从我们调查的数据，2006年截至6月末，银行房贷余额加上开发xx的余额总共是3.4万亿，到今年第二季度央行公布货币制度执行报告变成4.3万亿，一年时间涨了9千亿，毫无疑问，银行是中国房地产{zd0}的买单者。这意味着本来应该贷给其他行业的xx没有了，以上海为例，8月份，新增xx90%用于房地产，其他行业如制造业、高科技行业都没有银行资金支持了，这种畸形发展将破坏了国家经济结构的平衡。第二，提高首付的导火索就是美国次级房贷危机。在这个危机中，大量的中资银行受到损失，有切肤之痛，他们才知道原来连美国的房价都会掉，更何况中国了。相比建立在严格的信用等级审核体系上的美国银行房地产xx，中国银行业为了抢占房贷蛋糕，极大的放宽了xx的信用审查。从我们接触的大量投资客户来讲，一次性在北京买十几套房，在不同的单位开不同的收入证明，有些根本没有正当的职业或者专门就是炒房的，开出来的收入证明，一开是四万、五万的比比皆是。如果银行严格审核，这些人根本无法过关，但最终银行都办了xx。换句话说，之前中国银行在信贷的信用审核体制上是非常放松的，甚至于就是睁一只眼闭一只眼。可以说，如果按照美国信用体制标准，中国目前购房人起码有一半是次级信用者。我相信，如果北京、上海、南京等城市严格执行审核条件，估计现在申请xx的人肯定有一半的人过不了关，所以中国银行业存在巨大的次级信用者的房贷已是不争事实。日前建行研究部刚刚公布报告说中国将进入房贷违约的高风险期，对全银行业提出了严重警告。第三，房价暴涨的直接后果是银行风险倍增。同一套房，价格从100万涨价到200万，意味着银行的资金贬值一半，银行本来两百万可以抵押两套房，现在只能xx一套。所以，银行的风险跟不动产评估的价格是成正比的，房价越高，银行风险越大。因此，这一轮房价的暴涨已经在很多方面威胁到金融体系的安全，银行自发的要求要控制风险。这也是监管的银监会和央行多次发出这样的警告的原因。因此，在其他调控措施失效的背景下，银行提高房贷首付就成为降低风险的xxx手段。

我们需要注意，提高首付只是这一轮调控组合拳中的一部分，除了提高首付，持续加息、提高存款准备金等已经实施的调控政策，未来银行还将大幅缩减房贷规模。

按银行有相关规定，购房人每个月月供不能超过家庭收入50%，以北京目前的房价，四房以内几乎没有总价150万以下的房子，就按照150万，首付三成45万，月供在八千左右，也就是说购房人家庭收入必须得在一万六以上。以目前的房价，按照目前市场上新买房的人的收入情况，我相信北京购房人可能有三分之二的人够不了这个标准。所以如果银行严格把控信用审核这个标准，现在需求基本上将减一半。

2007-09-22