2010.02.20   北京

                              中国饲料业 

     爬不到一定的高度,很难看到一个地方的全貌。站在一个产业圈子以内, 很难看到这一个产业的大概。

   看一个产业的大概，大致要看到它过去走过的历程，现在所处的状况和未来发展的走向。看一个产业的大概，还要看到它的“左邻右舍”，它的上游与下游以及它可能受到它们的影响。除了这些,看一个产业的大概，当然还远不止这些。明白这样看大概的机理已不止一年、十年了。最难能可贵的是掌握了通过大概捕捉如一地鸡毛一般的细节的基本方法。因此，最近几年以来，总是在琢磨着如何看到自己所落入的饲料产业全貌。

   明白途径只有二条。一条是爬得高一些，再一条是彻底地跳出这个圈。

   不太有力气爬高了。雾蒙蒙的一片,待在山下都感觉气闷的慌。何况再登高? 爬高的兴趣已几近于无。又一直落在饲料产业圈子以内, 似乎也没有什么勇气再向圈外跳跃了。算是没有机会看到这个产业的大概了。可自己偏偏就是想看到这样一个产业的大概！总以为只要看到了这个产业的大概，其余未能看到的或不能直接接触到的,都应该是它的枝节梢末了,再也无关紧要。

   一心想着,事终将成。正当在自己无法看到但又特别想看饲料业大概的最迫切、最紧要关头，意外地看到了别人--一个外国人视野中的中国饲料业概况。从别人眼里看自己想看的世界也是看,总比xx不能看要好。

   赶紧抄录了这篇题为“China's dynamic feed industry：Arocky road to 2020”的原文,取名“China's feed industry”以符合心愿。不太工整地将它翻译出来，成全在博。从此,在《俯瞰市场》中的“中国的赖氨酸工业”在这里终于有了一个“情同手足”的忠实伴侣。

    遂全心愿。嘿嘿。。。。。。

          附录： China's feed industry
                                          by David Lin

                                    Translated by Desertfisher

      As it overtakes America's world leading output,China's feed industry faces a slew of challenges relatingg to feed quality,raw material sourcing and industry integration.

   中国饲料产量即将超过世界{dy}的美国饲料产量,随之而来的是中国饲料工业必须面对的一系列挑战,它们与饲料品质,原料供应和饲料行业整合有关。

      China's feed industry is a relatively new sector which grew rapidly as result of the country's reform policy and accelerated economic growth. As an important component of China's agricultural economy,the feed industry has become a key benchmark in measuring China's agricultural modernisation.

      中国饲料工业是一个较新型的工业,受国家的改革开发和加速经济增长政策强力推动,它取得了快速发展。作为中国农业经济的重要组成部分,中国饲料工业现已成为衡量中国农业现代化程度的一项主要标志。

      From 1978 to 1997, China's feed industry expanded at a rapid rate of more than 20 percent annually. In just 20 years,it transformed from operations in small,manual workshops to industrialized mass production.

    从1978年到1997年, 中国饲料工业年增长速度超过20%。在短短20年里,它已从小型而手工作坊式形态转变为工业化大量生产形态。

      From 1998 to 2003,the feed industry started catch up to income growth and entered a consolidating adjustment period. However, it still managed to maintaine a yearly growth rate of 5-7 percent.From 2004 onwards,China's feed regained momentum as the livestock sector increasingly trended towards integrated and standardised modes of rearing.

      从1998年到2003年,饲料工业开始抓利润增长而进入合并整合的行业调整时期。即使在这样一个时期,它仍然保持了一个5-7%的年增长速度.从2004年起,由于畜禽业出现朝一体化和标准化转型的趋势,为饲料工业发展带来了很大契机.

      Qualitatively speaking,demand for hog and layer feed now merely tracks population growth but broiler feed growths slightly faster.Mirroring the rapid demand increase for seafood and ruminant meat,aqua feed,cattle and sheep feed output are expanding at faster rates。

      实际上,对肉禽料,生猪料和蛋鸡料的需求量逐年增加较快,这些饲料需求量的变化与人口的增长直接相关。与此相适应,中国对海鲜产品、反刍动物肉品、水产饲料、牛羊饲料等产量需求也是与日俱增。

      From 1980 to 2008,China's total feed output had increased at an annual rate of 18.8 percent. in 2008, total feed output reached 137 million tonnes,which was worth RMB425.8 billion (US$62.40 billion),making China's second largest feed producer globally for the 17th consecutive year.Basing on their relative growth rates, China will soon surpass America's annual 150 million tonne production and become the world's number one feed producer.

      从1980到2008年, 中国饲料总产量每年增长18.8%。2008年全国产量达到了1.37亿吨,产值达到4258亿元(624亿美元),连续17年占据产量世界第二的位置。按此增长率,中国将很快地超过年产量1.5亿吨的美国,跃居世界xx。

      Nevertheless, achieving global market dominance is a more arduous and complex task than merely gaining market share. to influence the global feed market to extent the U.S. does, China's feed sector must address the following issues that determine the quality of feed produced, not melely its quantity.

      然而,取得全球饲料市场统治地位远非只是获得市场{zd0}份额那样轻松和简单,要达到美国对全球市场的影响程度,中国饲料工业必须重视决定生产的饲料品质的下列问题而不仅仅只是关注生产数量。

      First of all, China's feed industry suffer from a relatively low level of consolidation. output at 137 million tonnes , while impressive is against a 364 million tonne capacity. with only 38 percent of production capacity being used,the question is one of quality,not quantity.relative to their American,Thai or Dutch competitors China has too many small-scale feed mills,too much workshop-style milling,loose management,little product differentiation and poor feed quality.

    中国饲料工业经历了一个水准较低的整合阶段。目前，全国总产量只有1.37亿吨,而产能却有3.64吨,产能利用率只有38%。其主要原因就在于产品品质,而不是产量。相对于来自美国、泰国或荷兰的竞争对手来说，中国有太多的小型饲料厂,太多的作坊式饲料厂,过于松散的管理, 产品几乎没有什么差异化和太低劣的饲料品质。

       As the entry level for China's feed industry is set relatively low, it has led to a constant influx of new entrants, many of whom were lacked sufficient capital and were poorly managed. due to their inability to innovate new products,they merely imitate larger domestic manufacturers and make inferior versions of their feed.

      由于中国饲料业准入门坎较低,新进入者不乏滥竽充数，这些滥竽充数者缺少足够的资本并缺乏管理。由于创新产品的能力不足,它们只是模仿国内的大型厂家,生产低劣品质翻版饲料。

      This is now a common problem in China. A consequence of numerous tiny feed mills producing very similar, undifferentiated low quality feed is that the market's lower end has become commoditised. The feed sector's partial commoditisation leads to a second major problem:to survive such brutal competition, many small and medium-scale feed mills resort to unconventional or unethical business tactics. Methods include falsifying products' nutrient and overstating the feed conversion rate in order to deceive users.

     这就是在中国现在存在的一个最普遍问题。许多小饲料厂生产非常相似、几乎无差异的低劣品质饲料，使得市场低端十分商业化。商业化导致了另一个普遍性问题:为了在竞争激烈的夹缝中求得生存，很多小型和中等规模的饲料厂便违规或不道德地进行生产。其主要手段就是在饲料营养方面弄虚作假和对其饲料转化率夸大其词，以争夺客户。

      In addition,in order to attract and retain the qualified staff, some companies opt to raise markeying staff salaries. This however, comes at a price,as marketing expenses account for 60 percent of revenues at companies that sell more than 30000 tonnes of feed annually. to offset such high promotional costs,some companies then resort to using substandard raw materials.

      另外，为了吸引和留住有竞争力的人才,有些公司还得提高人员薪资。而对于年销售3万吨的饲料公司来说,这部分费用差不多占营业收入的60%，确实是一笔不小的开支。因此，少数公司不得不使用低标准原料。

      Some even use banned or restricted additives in their products.melamine for example,was found in feed long before its exposure in dairy products.yet,the use of such artifical or substandard feed raw materials is ultimately rooted in a third,deeper problem:while  China's vast population stimulates the industry's growth,its limited land area means that feed protein raw materials are in short supply.

     有些公司甚至使用禁用或限用的添加剂，如三聚氰胺。使用违禁添加剂，还有一个根本原因就是:中国巨大的人口数量刺激着工业的增长,而有限的土地意味着饲料蛋白原料供应十分短缺。

     To bridge this gap between protein meal supply and demand,China imports approximately 70% of its fishmeal and soy and over half of its synthetic amino acids. The protein meal deficit does more than merely inhibit the feed industry's growth: Substandard materials used to bridge protein shortages result in feed contamination,wastage and livestock nutritional imbalances.this,in turn,leads to lower quality meat and livestock.

     为弥补蛋白性粕类原料不能满足需求的缺陷，中国进口约70%的鱼粉和大豆以及占整个使用量一半以上的合成氨基酸。蛋白性粕类原料供应不足不xx制了饲料业的增长,而且因此而造成低标准原料的大量使用,产生了一系列问题:饲料污染、粮食浪费和畜禽动物营养不平衡，进而导致低品质肉品和畜禽生产。

      Moreever,this protein meal deficiency might soon be joined by a shortfall of coarse grain: corn is always in chronically short supply,with harvests barely keeping up with demands growth. it is possible that within the next decade,China will need to start importing a significant, ever growing proportion of its feed corn.

     同时, 蛋白性粕类原料供应不足的问题在不久以后还会有新的问题加入，即谷类粗粮作物短缺风暴产生: 除了在丰收年能勉强满足人口增长的需求以外，玉米总是会严重短缺。在下一个10年里，中国将开始大量进口玉米，特别是在提高了饲料用玉米的比例之后。

      Annother restaining factor is the slower growth rate of china's livestock sector relative to its feed industry. Presently,the country's livestock sector is still dominated by backyard farmers,which hampers its overall development.in addition problems such as trade barriers and animal disease outbreaks also seriouely affect livestock inventories and with it,feed sector output.

      限制中国饲料业发展的另外一个因素就是中国的畜禽业增长速度太慢。明显地,国家的畜禽业现在仍然由具有较大背景的农场主操纵，同时，贸易壁垒和动物疾病爆发等问题也严重地制约着畜禽存栏量和饲料产量增长。

      While the livestock sector's destiny is not in its control,recent years have seen
an accelerated pace of mergers, restructuring of companies and the emergence of new collaboration models.

      乘畜禽业前景不明，市场控制混乱之机,近几年中国的吞并者加大了兼并重组的步伐，出现了不少新型的合作模式。

      For example,New Hope Group,in partnership with Shandong Liuhe Group,Shaanxi Shiyang Group and Beijing Qianxihe Group,have formed the largest agriculuture cooperative in China's feed sector. They use their market leverage to hold down the purchasing costs for eight different feed raw materials.

      例如，新希望集团与山东六和集团、陕西石羊集团和北京千禧鹤集团联合,成为了中国饲料版块{zd0}的农业合作公司。他们使用市场杆杠,将八种不同原料的采购成本压低。

      From a roster of thousands, companies such as New Hope Group,Tongwei,East Hope,COFCO and Chia Tai (CP's China subsidiary) are emerging as the giants who will dominate china's feed sector. The next decade will see a drastic drop in the number of feed companies operating in China.
      从数以千计的公司之间的你死我活的竞争中,诸如新希望集团、通威集团、东方希望集团、中粮集团和正大集团(泰国卜蜂集团在中国的下属公司)等作为统治中国饲料业的潜在巨人，将可能{zh1}胜出。在今后十年,人们可以看到：中国的饲料营运公司数量将骤减！

       Towards the end of the decade,there will be a final and most important market shift。At that point,with feed production itself more strongly consolidated, leading feed companies will expand their operations downstreams.

    到下一个十年末,市场将最终出现重大转移。由此观之,饲料生产将发生更多的强强联合,作为市场xxx的饲料公司将发展它们的下游事业。

      Much like CP in thailand or Tyson foods in America,they will first integrate livestock production lines.later,they will extend their value added activities,first to meat processing and eventually,the marketing of processed meals.This is the long,ten year road china's feed champions must travel before they can rival their thai,dutch or american counterparts.

     很多像CP（泰国卜蜂集团）或美国泰森食品集团等公司，将率先整合他们的畜禽生产线。随后，还将扩展它们具有附加价值的事业，首先是肉品加工产业,{zh1}是粕类原料加工市场。中国的饲料产业{zh1}胜出者，如果要赶上他们的泰国、荷兰或美国的竞争对手，今后十年,将是一个漫长而十分艰巨的十年！