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本帖{zh1}由 dqzxf 于 2010-2-8 18:47 编辑
Electric cars
电动汽车
A Netscape moment?
又一个网景时刻?
Investors get out their chequebooks for electric-car start-ups
竞相投资电动汽车业的时刻开始了
Feb 4th 2010 | From The Economist print edition
THE idea of the “Netscape moment”, a fund-raising that signals the spawning of a whole new industry, is dear to Silicon Valley types who think back fondly to the browser firm’s spectacular initial public offering in 1995. So it was not surprising that in late January Shai Agassi, a former software entrepreneur, greeted a $350m investment in his company, Better Place, led by HSBC, in just those terms. Better Place, based in Palo Alto, which hopes to be the leading infrastructure provider for the world’s growing fleet of electric cars, has raised nearly $700m in two years, making it one of the biggest “clean-tech” start-ups. A few days later, lending some weight to Mr Agassi’s claim, Tesla Motors, a pioneering maker of battery-powered sports cars co-founded by Elon Musk, another technology entrepreneur, filed for an initial public offering aimed at raising $100m. There is certainly much discussion of electric cars all of a sudden, although not as much as the internet prompted in 1995 (see chart).
“网景时刻”是指催生了一个全新产业的融资活动。对于硅谷型人士（注1）而言,回味这家浏览器公司1995年首次公开xxxx时那种火爆的景象 , 心中总是有那么一种亲切的感觉。沙伊•阿加西以往经营的是软件业，乐土公司（Better Place）是他创办的一家企业。今年1月末的时候，当以汇丰银行为主的3.5亿美元资金注入他的公司时，阿加西的欢迎辞就采用了上述语言，对此人们毫不惊奇。乐土公司位于帕拉阿图市，其目标是成为全球迅速增长的电动汽车用户市场{lx1}的基础设施供应商。该公司在两年的时间内筹集了近7亿美元，使它成为新兴的“清洁技术”领域{zd0}的企业之一。 几天后，阿加西的话又增加了新的分量。特斯拉汽车公司是运动型电动轿车研制的先驱，艾伦·马斯克也是一个技术专家型的企业家，同时又是该公司的发起人之一。他签约进行了该公司股票的首次公开上市发行，目标是筹集1亿美元。虽然没有1995年IT企业上市时的那种轰动（见图表），电动汽车还是很突然就成了人们谈论的热门话题，
Two questions arise. The first is whether Mr Agassi is right in believing that electric vehicles and the industry required to support them are about to enter the mainstream; the second is whether the charge will be led by disruptive innovators like himself and Mr Musk, or whether they will end up being trampled underfoot by the traditional automotive and energy-supply heavyweights.
这就出现了两个问题。首先，阿加西的判断是否正确，他认为电动汽车及需要大笔资金投入的电动汽车产业将成为行业主流；其次，投入的资金是否由阿加西和马斯克之类具有突破性创新思维的人所主导，电动汽车产业是否会被传统的汽车行业及能源巨头们踩在脚下，败下阵来。
Investment in electric cars is being driven by tightening emissions regulations, worries about energy security and enthusiasm for the technology in China, already the world’s biggest car market. Industry forecasts suggest that by 2020 about 10% of new cars will be either entirely battery driven vehicles or plug-in hybrids, with accelerated growth thereafter.
中国已经是全球{zd0}的汽车消费市场，出于对能源安全的担忧，在日益严格的排放法规的推动下正热心于此项技术的推广，在电动汽车产业上投资也形成了热潮。工业分析人士预测到2020年约有10%的汽车要么xx是由电池驱动，要么就是采用插电式混合动力系统；在那之后，电动汽车的普及将会加速进行。
Mr Agassi’s achievement is to have shown how it can all be made to work. What impressed HSBC, apart from Better Place’s own technology, was the quality and seriousness of its partners, including Renault-Nissan, which has committed euro4 billion ($5.6 billion) and 2,000 engineers to creating a range of vehicles designed to operate with Better Place’s infrastructure, A123 Systems, a respected battery-maker, the governments of Israel, Denmark, Canada, Japan and California, and big utilities in those places as well.
阿加西取得的成就已经证明这{yt}终会到来。给汇丰银行留下深刻印象的，除了乐土公司的技术实力外，就是它的合作伙伴档次之高，其合作态度之极端认真。在合作伙伴中，雷诺-尼桑公司已经投入了40亿欧元（56亿美元）和2000名工程技术人员进行一系列车辆的开发设计，这些设计都是按照匹配乐土公司的基础设施而进行的；A123 Systems是一家受业内推崇的电池制造公司；以色列、丹麦、加拿大、日本和加利福尼亚州政府也都是其合作伙伴，在这些国家和地区（为电动汽车的使用）建立了庞大的市政设施。
In addition to installing thousands of charging points—up to 20,000 for both Israel and Denmark, the two countries where the project will first go live—Better Place is also building battery-switching stations. Renault says that its cars will do about 100 miles (160km) between charges, which is fine for most commutes but not for longer journeys. To overcome the range problem, Better Place has devised machinery that will swap one battery for another in about two minutes. Customers will buy their cars, but lease the batteries and only pay for the miles they drive.
在这些地方除了建设了数以千计的充电点外，乐土公司还建立了电池更换站。在以色列和丹麦，建立的充电点数都多达2万个，电动汽车项目将首先在这两个国家启动。雷诺公司承诺该公司生产的电动汽车充满一次电后可以开约100英里（160公里），这个距离对大多数跑通勤的人来说是足够了，但要长途旅行还远远不够。乐土公司已经发明了一种机械装置，能够在约2分钟的时间内就更换完毕一块电池。今后汽车还得客户自己购买，但电池可以租用，只要按照汽车行驶的里程缴租费就可以了。
It all sounds promising, at least for now. But in the longer term, Better Place’s model may prove vulnerable. The utilities providing the electricity are quite capable of rolling out their own charging-point networks. There are also concerns about whether the switching stations will catch on. Oliver Hazimeh of PRTM, a consultancy, doubts whether other car manufacturers developing electric vehicles will be interested in standardising their batteries along lines determined by Renault-Nissan. And building different switching stations for different cars would either be impractical or very expensive.
这项计划至少在目前看来似乎xx无缺，前景广阔。但从长期的角度看，乐土公司的模式也许还存在软肋。这些提供充电服务的企业xx可能自行扩张服务网络（从而摆脱其母公司）。也有人担心这种电池交换站模式能否流行开来。柏亚天管理咨询公司的咨询师奥利弗•哈兹梅（Oliver Hazimeh）就提出疑问，难道其它开发电动汽车的汽车制造厂商会有兴趣按照雷诺-尼桑制定的标准确定他们的电池使用规格？而各型汽车都建造自己的电池更换站成本过高，也难以实行。
Tesla’s prospects are even more uncertain. The firm’s prospectus brags about the technological innovations that have made its Roadster sports car a showcase for the potential of battery-driven cars to match the performance and (eventually) the range of the best conventional cars. But its next vehicle, the Model S, a five-door luxury saloon priced to compete with BMW’s 5-series that is meant to go on sale in 2012, is a far more ambitious undertaking and one that is fraught with risk.
泰斯拉公司的前景更不明确。该公司在简介中自我吹嘘其技术发明使它的运动型跑车成了未来电池驱动轿车的样板车型，与{zyx}的常规动力轿车相比其性能毫不逊色，（最终）其车型种类也能与之相媲美。该公司即将推出豪华型四门电动轿车Model S，其定价瞄准打算在2012年进入销售市场的宝马5系列轿车，与之展开竞争。这真是一个雄心勃勃的目标，但同样充满风险。
Tesla has about $100m in cash and a $465m loan from America’s Department of Energy, but production of the Roadster will cease next year to allow retooling of the factory, and neither the design nor the production arrangements for the Model S have been finalised. Mr Musk’s plan to make 20,000 Model S saloons a year is a huge step up for Tesla (which has built about 1,000 Roadsters to date), but a tiny number for an industry that demands scale like no other.
泰斯拉公司自己投入了1亿美元，从美国能源部xx4.65亿美元。为了重新规划工厂的布局其跑车的生产明年将暂停。但Model S车型的设计与生产线的布局还都还没有最终敲定。泰斯拉目前的跑车年产量约1千台，马斯克的计划是使Model S轿车的年产量达到2万台。对于泰斯拉公司而言这是迈了极大的一步，但对于一个需要其它行业难以企及的生产规模作支撑的产业而言，这个数字还是太小了。
Mr Musk believes that Tesla’s focus and Silicon Valley agility give it an advantage over incumbent carmakers. But those incumbents are now taking electric cars very seriously indeed, and have huge engineering and financial resources, as Renault-Nissan is demonstrating. Tesla has a close relationship with Daimler, which took a 10% stake in the firm last year. It may end up a skunk works for the German manufacturer rather than a carmaker in its own right. After all, where is Netscape now?
马斯克相信泰斯拉公司产品专一的特点与硅谷的灵活性相结合，使它与那些轿车市场的霸主相比更加具有优势。但这些市场霸主们现在确实是非常重视电动汽车的研发，就像雷诺-丰田公司所展现的那样，而且它们在工程和资金方面具有压倒性的优势。泰斯拉与戴姆勒汽车公司关系密切，后者去年购买了该公司10%的股份。但最终结果很可能是这家德国制造业巨头手下又多了一家臭鼬工厂（注2）。毕竟，网景公司现在哪里去了？ |
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