出版商曾经把2009年定为概念报纸和杂志年。时代公司甚至还组建了一个设计公司，叫做Wonder Factory（奇迹工厂？），来创作具有视频概念的未来Sports Illustraed版本。之后又有另一个来自Bonnier Group的概念视频产品，一家来自瑞典媒体的公司，走得更远，它已经将文字和图像嵌入到平板中，并允许你进行flick，拖拽，滚动，而且产品非常薄。

但是，所有这些超级棒且具有创新性的实物模型都有一个问题，那就是：当你看着这些视频想象下一步这些设备还将会提供什么的时候，你所剩的恐怕只是美妙概念下的一个记忆而已。是的，它们很漂亮，但它们大多数都还是纸上谈兵。直到真的有人开发出了能运行这些东西的硬件，像Bonnier Group它们这些概念才像时光旅行或者飞行汽车那样开始变得现实。

要知道，生产这些设备是很困难的，而且还要做得对，这一点很重要。你可以看看Bits原来发布的那篇文章：。

（要制造）真正的平板电脑确实有硬件方便的局限。像亚马逊的Kindle和索尼的电子书阅读器都是用电子墨来获得更长的电池寿命和更好的阅读体验的。而要制造类似这样的全彩色电子屏的设备，你遇到的问题将是电池续航能力、操作系统、价格还有一大堆其他的一些技术挑战。要在10英寸的屏幕上跑出流畅的视频，而且还可以顺畅且不间断地与网络连接互动，真的需要每两个小时都充一次电。

苹果的平板电脑

出版商们对网上流行的大多数平板概念视频都很喜欢，因为它们都似乎都可以与Apple匹配。他们是需要一种这样的设备。尽管像戴尔、索尼、惠普这些掌上电脑和移动设备的制造商都深知用户对这样一种产品的期望，可它们似乎都在等苹果出击来改变我们阅读杂志、报纸、博客和图书的方式。

就技术方面而言，我和大多数人一样，毫不怀疑苹果（公司）会在2010年推出这样的一款平板设备。因为已经有很多迹象都在预示着这个方向了。让我们先把所有的流言放一边，看看那些事实吧。苹果有那么多的专利。而且，Brad Stone曾在去年9月份的《xxxx》上报道过有关重新雇佣Michael Tchao的消息。Michael曾在苹果的Newton产品线上工作。我一直在与出版商和内容开发商进行多次讨论，我还保留我的怀疑。

但放出消息的是一位苹果内部的老雇员。我的一位同事问到有关苹果平板电脑的传言是否属实，而且我们也可以预感到会有这么一款产品时，他的回答是“我真的什么都不能说，但，我们至少可以这样说，乔布斯对新的平板电脑非常满意。”

而且，最近又有一位刚刚离开苹果的雇员对我说：“当你与新的平板电脑交互时，你一定会非常吃惊的。”

有一位原来的苹果公司雇员，他的名字出现在很多苹果的专利上。他曾经在五年前从事苹果平板电脑，那时乔布斯宣布先将平板搁置一边。他最近告诉我，已经有很多技术用到了其他设备上了。他解释说，原来这些早期的概念性技术现在已经在市场上出现了。如果你有一台iPhone，那么你实际上就是有了一个早期苹果平板电脑的迷你版本。他还说，早期平板电脑的瓶颈之一是缺乏软件支持。而现在苹果Store和出版商的热情已经显示，这已经不成问题了。

其它竞争者

在2010年的平板电脑市场上，另外一个竞争者就是微软了。过去几个月，微软高级经理们一直在与出版商大谈其双屏的Courier平板设备，这是在9月份的时候由Gizmodo报道的。

JooJoo这款原先命名为Crunchpad的平板设备，曾是一款廉价的最有前景的平板电脑。JooJoo的最初价格被定为200美元，而现在则要500美元了。当连线的Gadget Lab拿到一款手持的版本时曾这样说道：“尽管这款产品的硬件设计和组成元素都不错，但目前它不能做的似乎比它能做的还要多。”

JooJoo就是设备生产商们在进行平板生产尝试时遇到困难的{zh0}案例。

很清楚，从来自公众的各种有关视频、模型、概念的兴奋和积极评价来看，人们真的需要一台平板电脑。

2010: The Year of the Tablet

By NICK BILTON

Publishers made 2009 the year of the concept newspaper and magazine. Time Inc. teamed up with a design company, the Wonder Factory, to create a fun concept video of the Sports Illustrated of the future. Then there was another concept video from the Bonnier Group, a Swedish media company, which went a step further and moved the words and images off a screen and onto a table, allowing you to flick, drag and scroll in thin air.

There is, however, one problem with all of these wonderful and creative mock-ups: After you watch the videos and imagine what a device like this might offer, you are left with nothing more than a memory of a fancy concept. Yes, they are beautifully presented, but they are mostly pie-in-the-sky ideas. Until someone actually creates the hardware to run these experiences, concepts like that in the Bonnier Group video are about as realistic as those in a video about time travel or flying cars.

It’s important to understand how difficult these devices will be to produce, especially if done right. You can read an earlier Bits post that outlined .

There are major hardware limitations with a real tablet. E-readers like the Kindle from Amazon and the Reader from Sony use E Ink for longer battery life and ease of reading. To make similar devices with a fully immersive color screen, you face problems with battery power, operating systems, price and a grab bag of other technical challenges. An affordable 10-inch screen capable of streaming video, with full interaction and a constant Web connection is going to require a power outlet every two hours.

The Apple Tablet

A lot of the concept videos and mock-ups floating around the Web can be likened to publishers sounding a mating call to Apple. They want a device. And although laptop and mobile manufacturers like Dell, Sony and Hewlett-Packard have long known about the consumer yearnings for such a product, they seem to be waiting for Apple to innovate and change the way we read magazines, newspapers, blogs and books.

Like almost all the people covering technology, I have no doubt that Apple will release a tabletlike device in 2010; there are too many signs that point in this direction. Let’s put all the rumors aside for a moment and look at the facts. There’s the endless chain of patents, as Brad Stone reported in The New York Times in late September on the rehiring of Michael Tchao, who worked on the Apple Newton. I’ve had many discussions with publishers and content creators that sustain my suspicions.

But the icing on the cake comes from a current senior employee inside Apple. When one of my colleagues here asked if the rumors of the Apple tablet were true, and when we could expect such a device, the response from his source was, “I can’t really say anything, but, let’s just say Steve is extremely happy with the new tablet.”

Yet another recently departed Apple employee tipped me: “You will be very surprised how you interact with the new tablet.”

A former Apple employee, whose name appears on numerous Apple patents, worked on an Apple tablet five years ago and recently told me when the first version of the tablet was shelved by Steve Jobs, a lot of the technology made it into other devices. He explained that components of these early stage concepts are already out in the marketplace. If you have an iPhone, for example, you’re carrying around a mini version of an early Apple tablet. He also says that one of the barriers to producing the early tablets was the lack of software. The success of the App Store and the eagerness of the publishers show that this won’t be a problem for any new devices.

Other Contenders

Microsoft is another company to watch through 2010 as a potential contender in the tablet marketplace. Senior Microsoft executives have been talking to publishing companies over the past few months, showing off mock-ups of the dual-screened Courier tablet device, first reported by Gizmodo in late September.

The JooJoo, formerly the Crunchpad, had the most promise for an inexpensive consumer tablet. The original price of the JooJoo was going to be $200, but it is now being offered for $500. When Wired’s Gadget Lab got a hands-on session with the JooJoo it had this to say: “Though it seems to have the hardware design and form factor right, the list of what it can’t do, for now, outweighs what it can.”

The JooJoo was a prime example of the difficulty that device manufacturers face trying to make a new tabletlike experience.

It’s clear from the public excitement and positive feedback to these videos, prototypes and concepts that people really want a tablet. I know I do.