Pan Shiyi

recently published an article through the blog, and Wang Shi open a different tune, unequivocally opposed to the real estate industry a “turning point” is; and that Vanke in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places of the “price” acts much like the year Vanke — the color TV industry is in order to exert pressure on other small and medium-sized developers to “clean their own house” objective.

“inflection point can not see the trend of real estate”

Wang judge for the domestic real estate industry is facing an “inflection point” of view, Pan Shiyi believe that the market analysis to a combination of qualitative and quantitative, if only in the individual based on analysis of data obtained would be “to see the trees and no forest” the wrong conclusions; particularly the Household Income and price ratio, these data are a lot of water, especially in housing prices, because these data the “price” is only一手房did not include second-hand housing prices, while the second-hand housing prices than一手房prices lower.

He also said that based on their company’s own research to write the “Beijing real estate analysis report” (including a new house and second-hand housing prices), can not see the turning point of real estate to emerging trends. Of course, this is only based on the Beijing market data, Pan Shiyi that does not represent the situation throughout the country. He said Vanke Wang led more than 20 cities across the country to do the development of the country, particularly affordable housing a better understanding of the situation, more say, and SO-HO China mainly concentrated in the Beijing Development of Beijing’s market, more experience, a judge may also be more precise.

recent peak Canton real estate forum, a number of industry experts according to the macroeconomic situation and housing needs of the situation, predicted that China’s longest period of price adjustment will reach 15-month view, not the same Pan Shiyi . He said, “Why come to a 15-month period of adjustment conclusions, rather than 14 months or 16 months, we have seen is that the real market demand has not changed to Beijing as an example, in 2007 Beijing all sold before the house a total of 144,000 sets, but in 2007 the urban population as high as Beijing add 520,000 people. “

” Vanke is trying to clean their own house in the market “

since Vanke in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other places open after the price reduction, Vanke Group, also said this year’s Lantern Festival in Shanghai will be its availability for the remainder of the sale.

Vanke how this series of practice? Pan Shiyi think, first of all depends on background: First, the international economy into recession, in the end will be on China, the impact of China’s real estate? Wanke was judged that will certainly affect, so they made a series of adjustments; second, in the past two years, land prices, house prices have increased substantially and Vanke that emerged in the land market more obvious bubble Therefore, Wang put forward the “can not behave like to Wang”; Vanke mentality from the point of view, Vanke sales in 2007 exceeded 500 billion, they have been in the market that have enough influence can go to the “clean their own house,” a stage.

Pan Shiyi in this way in his blog said, “I remember many years ago, color TV industry leader Changhong Group, also believes that the strength of their very powerful, and to the point where can clean their own house, they practice CRT hoarding, on the other hand the development of new products, rear-projection TV, I would like to dominate the world; and today Vanke practice is to talk about ‘turning point’, advised people not to buy the house in 2034, before the age of 40 not to buy a house, as well as the full price and so on, the two companies in different practices, but the goal is the same, is to use their influence in the market to clean their own house. “

Chinese version:潘石屹与王石唱反调 公开发文反对“拐点论”

潘石屹近日通过博客发表文章，与王石公开唱反调，明确反对房地产业出现“拐点”的说法；并认为万科在广州、深圳等地的“降价”行为很像当年的彩电行业———万科是为了给其它中小开发商施加压力，达到“清理门户”的目的。

“看不出房地产业拐点趋势”

对于王石判断国内房地产业面临“拐点”的观点，潘石屹认为，对市场的分析要定性和定量相结合，如果只是在个别数据基础上进行分析，得到的将会是“只见树木，不见森林”的错误结论；尤其是用年家庭收入和房价比，这些数据中有许多的水分，特别是房价，因为这些数据中的“房价”只是一手房，并没有包括二手房的房价，而二手房的房价比一手房的房价要低。

他还表示，根据他们公司自己调研撰写的“北京市房地产分析报告”（包括新房及二手房价格），看不出来房地产要出现拐点的趋势。当然，这只是基于北京市场的数据，潘石屹认为并不能代表全国的情况。他说，王石领导的万科在全国20多个城市做开发，对全国的情况，尤其是中低档住宅的情况更了解，更有发言权，而SO-HO中国主要集中在北京开发，对北京的市场更有体会，判断得也可能更准确一些。

对于近日广州地产高峰论坛上，有不少业内专家根据宏观经济运行的形势和住房需求情况，预测中国房价调整期最长会达到15个月的观点，潘石屹同样不以为然。他说，“为什么会得出15个月调整期的结论，而不是14个月，或者16个月，我们看到的情况是，市场真实的需求并没有改变，以北京为例，2007年北京所有销售出去的房子总共才14.4万套，但2007年北京新增城市人口就高达52万人。”

“万科是想在市场清理门户”

自从万科在广州、深圳、成都等地公开降价后，万科集团也表示今年元宵节后将对其在上海的剩余房源进行降价销售。

如何看待万科这一系列的做法？潘石屹认为，首先要看大背景：{dy}、国际经济步入萧条，到底会不会对中国、对中国的房地产造成影响？万科的判断是肯定会影响，所以他们做出了一系列的调整；第二、过去两年时间，土地的价格、房子的价格大幅度上涨，万科认为土地市场中出现了比较明显的泡沫，所以王石提出“不能再做xx”；再从万科的心态上来看，2007年万科销售额突破了500亿元，他们认为已经在市场上有足够的影响力，可以到了“清理门户”的地步了。

潘石屹在其博客里这样表示，“我记得许多年前彩电行业的老大长虹集团，也认为自己的力量非常强大了，到了可以清理门户的地步了，他们的作法是囤积显像管，另一方面研制新产品背投电视，想一统天下；而今天万科的做法是谈‘拐点’，劝告人们三四年内不要购买房子、40岁之前不要购买房子，以及全面降价等，两个公司的作法不同，但目的都是一样的，都是为了利用自己的影响力在市场上清理门户。”

2008-02-19