科学网-陈钊的博客-信封背面的计算:全球变暖2℃将在多久时间内发生企业库|免费b2b网站

科学网-陈钊的博客-信封背面的计算:全球变暖2℃将在多久时间内发生

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鍙嬫儏閾炬帴

姝ｆ枃

瀛﹁€呴檲閽?鍙戣〃浜?010-1-9 12:31:02
锛? 鈹? 娴忚锛?70

淇″皝鑳岄潰鐨勮绠?鍏ㄧ悆鍙樻殩2鈩冨皢鍦ㄥ涔呮椂闂村唴鍙戠敓

“back-of-the-envelope鎸囩殑鏄竴涓緢绮楃暐鐨勮绠楋紝涓嶇簿纭紝浣嗗彲浠ヨ鐢ㄤ綔瀵规煇涓鐐圭殑鏀寔鎴栬鎹€傜畝鍗曠殑璇达紝鏄粙浜庣寽娴嬪拰閾佽瘉涔嬮棿鐨勪竴涓蹇点€傚父鐢ㄥ湪鏁板锛岀墿鐞嗭紝鍙婃煇浜涘伐绋嬮鍩熶腑銆?”——銆婄櫨搴︾煡閬擄細淇″皝鑳岄潰璁＄畻銆?/font>

“ 鍦ㄨ窡鏌紛浼涔犳椂锛屾垜绗竴娆＄煡閬撲簡浠€涔堝彨鍋氫俊灏佽儗闈㈢殑璁＄畻锛氫竴涓彲鑳借В鍐虫煇涓棶棰樼殑鎯虫硶绐佺劧娑岀幇鍦ㄨ剳娴烽噷锛屼綘绔嬪嵆鎵惧嚭涓€涓棫淇″皝锛岀敤浣犵殑鍩虹鐗╃悊瀛︾煡璇嗭紝鍦ㄤ俊灏佷笂鍐欎笅鍑犱釜绮楃暐鐨勫叕寮忥紝濉笂鍙兘鐨勬暟鍊硷紝妫€楠屼竴涓嬩綘鐨勭瓟妗堟槸鍚﹁兘澶熻В鍐充綘鐨勯棶棰樸€傚鏋滀笉鎴愬姛锛屼綘鍐嶅姹傚彟澶栫殑瑙ｅ喅鏂规硶銆傝繖鏍峰鎵鹃敊璇紝灏卞儚鍒€鍒囧ザ娌逛竴鏍峰鏄撱€?rdquo;——C·Sagan銆婇瓟楝煎嚭娌＄殑涓栫晫銆?/font>

鎴戣繖閲屾壘浜嗕竴涓粌涔犵殑渚嬪瓙,璁╂垜鑷繁鑷鎬庝箞鐢ㄧ矖鐣ョ殑璁＄畻鏉ユ楠屾煇浜涘亣璁撅紝鍗虫墍璋?ldquo;淇″皝鑳岄潰鐨勮绠?rdquo;銆傝绠楃殑鏌愪簺鍏蜂綋鏁板瓧骞朵笉閲嶈锛屽洜涓哄彧鏄牴鎹緢灏戠殑鏉′欢鐢ㄥ緢鍩虹鐨勭墿鐞嗗鍘熺悊鏉ユ楠屾煇浜涘亣璁撅紝閲嶈鐨勬槸锛屼綔涓轰竴涓楠屽亣璁剧殑鎵嬫锛屽姩绗旇绠楀彲鑳芥瘮绌哄彛杈╄鏇存湁瀹為檯鎰忎箟銆?/font>

鍋囪嫢鍏ㄧ悆娓╁害骞冲潎涓婂崌2鈩冧細鎬庢牱锛?/font>

鎴戜滑鐭ラ亾娴锋磱鍗犲湴鐞冭〃闈㈢殑~73%锛屾捣娲嬬殑骞冲潎娣卞害鏄?.8km, 鍦扮悆鐨勫懆闀垮樊涓嶅鏄?涓囧叕閲屻€傛按鐨勬瘮鐑澶х害鏄?.2E3J/kgK銆傝绠楀叏閮ㄥ彇鍥介檯鍗曚綅鍒躲€?/font>

鍏ㄧ悆鍗囨俯鏃犳硶鍔犵儹澶ф磱娣卞鐨勬捣姘达紝鍥犱负鍏夌嚎閫忓叆娴锋按琛ㄩ潰鐪熷厜灞傜殑娣卞害涓嶈秴杩?00绫炽€傚ソ锛岄偅鎴戜滑灏卞彇娴锋磱琛ㄩ潰100绫冲ソ浜嗭紝鍋囪琛ㄩ潰100绫崇殑娴锋按璺熸皵娓╀竴鏍蜂笂鍗?鈩冿紝娴锋按鐨勮川閲廙s澶х害鏄?.73*4πR^2*d*ρ = 1.46*C*R*d = 1.46*4.00E7*6.37E6*100*1E3 = 3.7E19kg,

鍗囨俯2鈩冧細鍌ㄥ瓨 2*4.2E3*Ms = 3.1E22 J

鍙堝亣璁惧叏鐞冩捣骞抽潰骞冲潎涓婂崌0.7绫冲叏閮ㄦ槸鐢卞啺宸濊瀺姘存墍閲婃斁锛屽啺鐨勮瀺鍖栫儹鏄?.36E5 J/kg
,閭ｄ箞锛屼笉闅剧粰鍑鸿繖閮ㄥ垎鍌ㄥ瓨鐨勭儹閲忚嚦灏戞槸 0.007*Ms*3.36E5 J/kg = 8.7E22 J

涓よ€呭姞鍜屼负1.2E23 J.骞虫憡鍦?0骞寸殑璇濓紝姣忓勾鏄?.4E21 J, 杩欓噷瀹屽叏娌℃湁鑰冭檻澶ч檰鍜屽ぇ姘旂殑鍌ㄧ儹鑳藉姏锛岃€屼粎浠呰€冭檻浜嗘捣娲嬭〃灞傜殑鍌ㄧ儹鑳藉姏锛岃€冭檻鍒版捣娲嬬殑鍌ㄧ儹鑳藉姏姣斿ぇ闄嗗拰澶ф皵澶ц澶氾紝鎴戜滑璁や负鏁翠釜鍦扮悆澶х害姣忓勾澶氬偍瀛?E21 J鐨勭儹閲?鍚屾椂娓╁害浠ュ勾骞冲潎0.04K鐨勫箙搴︿笂鍗?

鎴戜滑鍐嶆潵鐪嬬湅鍦扮悆鐨勮兘閲忔敹鏀紝澶槼甯告暟鏄疌s1380W/m2锛屽湴鐞冨弽灏勭巼澶х害鏄?.3, 杈愬皠鐜囧ぇ绾︽槸0.6,杩欎簺鍙傛暟淇濋殰浜嗗湴鐞冨ぇ浣撲笂鐨勮兘閲忓钩琛°€?/font>

鍦扮悆鍦ㄤ竴骞翠腑鍚告敹鐨勫お闃崇儹閲忎负0.7*Cs*π6.37E6^2 *365* 86400 = 3.9E25J

涓よ€呯浉姣?涓嶉毦鍙戠幇,澶х害鏄?.77E-4,鍗冲湴鐞冩瘡骞磋澶氬偍瀛樹粠澶槼閭ｉ噷鑾峰彇鐑噺鐨勫崄涓囧垎涔嬩竷鍒板叓.鎺ヨ繎涓囧垎涔嬩竴.

鍋囧杩欑鎯呭喌鍙戠敓浜?鑳藉綊鍥犱簬姘镐箙鎬ф俯瀹ゆ皵浣撴帓鏀惧鍔犲悧?鎴戜滑鐭ラ亾,鐩墠,鍖呮嫭浜屾哀鍖栫⒊,鐢茬兎绛夊湪鍐呮俯瀹ゆ皵浣?鎶樼畻涓轰簩姘у寲纰崇殑璇?鎬荤殑璐ㄩ噺鍒嗘暟鏄?35ppm,宸ヤ笟闈╁懡鍓嶆槸330ppm.濡傛灉浜虹被涓嶅姞鎺у埗鐨勬帓鏀炬俯瀹ゆ皵浣?50骞村唴,娓╁姘斾綋鐨勮川閲忓垎鏁板皢杈惧埌540ppm,鐩稿綋浜庡ぇ姘斾腑澧炲姞浜嗕竾鍒嗕箣涓€宸﹀彸鐨勬俯瀹ゆ皵浣撳惈閲?

鍋囪娓╁姘斾綋鐨勮川閲忓垎鏁板拰鎴暀澶槼杈愬皠鐨勬瘮渚嬩箣闂村憟绾挎€у叧绯?涓旀瘮渚嬬郴鏁版帴杩戜簬1,閭ｄ箞杩欎釜鎰挎櫙灏辨槸涓绘祦姘斿€欏瀹舵彁鍑虹殑,浼间箮娌℃湁浠讳綍闂銆?/font>

涓嶈繃锛屽鏋滆€冨療涓嬪叾瀹冭鏄燂紙鏃㈢劧涓诲紶娓╁姘斾綋瀵艰嚧鍏ㄧ悆鍙樻殩涓€娲句汉椹紝缁忓父涓惧嚭閲戞槦鐨勫け鎺ф俯瀹ゆ晥搴旀潵鍚撳敩鍦扮悆浜猴級锛屾俯瀹ゆ皵浣撶殑璐ㄩ噺鍒嗘暟锛屽湪閲戞槦锛堝ぇ姘斿瘑搴?0鍊嶄簬鍦扮悆锛屽嚑涔庡叏閮ㄤ负浜屾哀鍖栫⒊锛夋槸鍦扮悆鐨?2涓?鍗冨€嶏紝鑰屽畠鎵€瀵艰嚧鐨勮鏄熻緪灏勭巼闄嶄綆鍒?.07宸﹀彸鐨勬按骞筹紝鐩稿浜庡湴鐞冪殑0.68锛屽嵆閲戞槦姣斿湴鐞冨22涓囧鍊嶇殑娓╁姘斾綋锛屽彧姣斿湴鐞冨鎴幏浜?0鍊嶅乏鍙崇殑澶槼鐑噺銆傛垜浠緱鍑烘瘮渚嬬郴鏁版槸涓囧垎涔嬩竴鐨勬暟閲忕骇銆?/font>

濡傛灉鍚屾牱鐨勬儏鍐靛簲鐢ㄤ簬鍦扮悆锛屽鏋滄俯瀹ゆ皵浣撳惈閲忓鍔犲埌550ppm锛岃川閲忓垎鏁版瘮宸ヤ笟鍖栧墠鎻愰珮涓囧垎涔嬩簩锛岄偅涔堬紝灏嗕細瀵艰嚧鍦扮悆澶氭埅鑾峰ぇ绾︿嚎鍒嗕箣涓€宸﹀彸鐨勫お闃崇儹閲忋€傝繖鏍凤紝姣忓勾闇€瑕佹捣姘达紝闄嗗湴绛夌儹搴撴潵搴撳瓨鐨勭儹閲忓ぇ绾︽槸4E17锛屾牴鎹垜浠墠闈㈢殑璁＄畻锛岄渶瑕?.3E6骞达紝鍗宠繖绉嶆儏鍐典笅锛岃缁忚繃30涓囧勾锛屽湴鐞冪殑骞冲潎娓╁害鎵嶄細涓婂崌2K锛屾捣骞抽潰鎵嶄笂鍗?.7绫炽€?/font>

杩欎釜璁＄畻缁撴灉瀹為檯涓婅鏄庝笉浜嗛棶棰橈紝鍥犱负鍦?0涓囧勾锛屽湴鐞冨啺鏈熷惊鐜€犳垚鐨勬俯闄嶆俯鍗囧彲浠ユ樉钁楃殑瓒呰秺鐢变簬灏戣娓╁姘斾綋鏀瑰彉閫犳垚鐨勬俯鍗囥€備笉杩囷紝鍗充娇姣斾緥绯绘暟涓婇潰鎴戜滑璇樊浜?00鍊嶏紝鎵╁ぇ鍒扮櫨鍒嗕箣涓€鐨勬暟閲忕骇锛屼篃璇存槑锛岀敱娓╁姘斾綋閫犳垚鐨勫湴鐞冨钩鍧囨俯搴︿笂鍗?K锛屾捣骞抽潰鎵嶄笂鍗?绫冲乏鍙虫槸鍗冨勾绾ф椂闂村昂搴﹁€屼笉鏄櫨骞寸骇鏃堕棿灏哄害鐨勭幇璞°€?/font>

鏈枃寮曠敤鍦板潃锛?

褰撳墠鎺ㄨ崘鏁帮細3 鎺ㄨ崘浜猴細

[2] 鏍囬锛?/td>

鍙戣〃璇勮浜猴細 [2010-1-9 13:30:49] ip:128.186.0.*

" 璁＄畻鐨勬煇浜涘叿浣撴暟瀛楀苟涓嶉噸瑕侊紝鍥犱负鍙槸鏍规嵁寰堝皯鐨勬潯浠剁敤寰堝熀纭€鐨勭墿鐞嗗鍘熺悊鏉ユ楠屾煇浜涘亣璁撅紝閲嶈鐨勬槸锛屼綔涓轰竴涓楠屽亣璁剧殑鎵嬫锛屽姩绗旇绠楀彲鑳芥瘮绌哄彛杈╄鏇存湁瀹為檯鎰忎箟銆?

I strongly agree that " 浣滀负涓€涓楠屽亣璁剧殑鎵嬫锛屽姩绗旇绠楀彲鑳芥瘮绌哄彛杈╄鏇存湁瀹為檯鎰忎箟", and your method is physically meaningful. However, if you use the 鍏蜂綋鏁板瓧 implied by my last response, then you would easily find that right estimate is less than 100 years, rather than thousands years.
鍗氫富鍥炲锛氬璋㈡枃娴峰厔鎸囨暀锛屾垜寰堥珮鍏磋繖涓笢瑗跨湡鐨勮捣鍒颁簡鎶涚爾寮曠帀鐨勪綔鐢ㄣ€?/font>

[1] 鏍囬锛?/td>

鍙戣〃璇勮浜猴細 [2010-1-9 13:00:39] ip:128.186.0.*

Some thing wrong in your calculation, and you can refine your calculation easily:

(1) your calculation is based on the energy balance at the ocean surface layer, so the input radiation should include the long wave radiation, please see the figure:

http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Climate/Climate_Science/EarthsEnergyBalance.html

Note: the long-wave radiation absorbed by the surface ( 324 W/m^2) is much larger than the absorbed solar radiation ( 168 W/m^2)

(2) doubling CO2 will increase the downward surface long-wave radiation by about 1 W/m^2, but the associated water vapor feedback will the downward surface long-wave radiation by about 6 W/m^2;

(3) you over-estimated the depth of ocean mixed layer in which the warming could be homogeneous, and therefore overestimate the heat content of the ocean. It is more related to slow part of the climate system response to the external forcing. Please refer to the paper by I.M. Held, a highly respected theoretical scientist:

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/isaac-held-homepage

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/ih/papers/recalcitrant_2.pdf

(2) you did not consider the dynamics of atmosphere and ocean, which are responsible for the rapid response to the external forcing such as doubling CO2 and solar forcing.
鍗氫富鍥炲锛歍hank you wenhai, your comment is very helpful. I 'll try to refine my calculation later.

鍙戣〃璇勮锛?/td>

鐢ㄦ埛鍚嶏細

蹇呭～

鐢靛瓙閭锛?/td>

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